The trend is our friend; GMI: +3; Interest rates rising; a short list of stocks

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

You may ask, why do I continually talk about the GMI?  It is because the majority of stocks follow the trend of the general market averages.  It is exemplified by the "M" in CANSLIM.  It is said that about 70% of stocks follow the market trend. If this is true, then why not trade with the odds in our favor?  This is one of the hardest lessons to learn.  In the past, I would lose all of my hard earned trading profits and more, when I kept buying break-out stocks in the inevitable decline that followed a bull move.  According to my analyses, the QQQQ is in day 6 (D-6) of a decline.  Using the TC2005 technical analysis program, I can count how many of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose over the past 6 days– 38%.  Thus, if I bought a Nasdaq 100 stock on 6/24 and held it through Friday, 7/1, I had a 38/100 chance of having a profitable position.  On the other hand, if I had shorted a stock on 6/24, I had a 62% chance of having a winner.  As they say, the trend is our friend……………………………..

The GMI closed Friday at +3. 701gmi  The Spy and QQQQ indicators continue to be weak. IBD still maintains that the market is in a "confirmed rally."  And S&P thinks we are in for a great second half of the year.  I am not so sure.  I added a new indicator to the GMI box, Stocks in a Short Term Up-trend.  This indicator shows that 42% of the 4,000 stocks in my universe are in an up-trend, down from 55% when this decline began.  Furthermore, only 39% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, compared to 63% of the S&P 500 stocks and 67% of the Dow 30.  The Dow 30 stocks look terrible to me with the following 20 stocks in a down trend:  UTX, INTC, MO, CAT, JNJ, PG, C, AXP, GE, MSFT, HD, DIS, KO, VZ, MMM, MCD, PFE, DD, AA, MRK.  Get the picture?  Two thirds of the Dow 30 stocks look technically weak to me.  It never fails to amaze me how these market analysts presume to predict the direction of stocks based on their interpretations of the economy.  Don’t they understand that the market always predicts the economy.  We typically find out the economic reasons for a market decline or a rise after it has occurred.  Maybe I should buy puts on the Dow ETF–DIA………………………………………….

It is also curious to me how the pundits cling to a bullish scenario in the face of an aggressive Fed.  I think that it is well known that the market has an up-hill battle when rates are rising (Marty Zweig was a master at using Fed actions to time the market) and there is no ambiguity here. Irx701  The short term interest rate indicator has hit yet another new high.  It looks to me like the Fed will  over-tighten, yet again, and push the economy off the cliff.  Even if they don’t, rising oil prices and heating bills may kill the economy next winter.  When we read all of their market predictions, we must remember that market pundits tend to be overly optimistic–they need someone to buy their stocks from them.  It is rare that a commentator will advise the public to go to cash or to take the short side.  The wise speculators trade both sides of the market and embrace a trend, regardless of its direction.  Don’t take my word for it–read the classics listed on the right………………………………………….

I told you before that I have been successful in avoiding the bulk of market declines since 1998.  I exited the market completely in October, 2000 and got back in after it bottomed.  So, now I sit in cash or short and wait for the trend to develop.  If I am wrong about this decline, I can always reverse direction in an instant.  There is plenty of time to climb aboard a rising market if it is a  sustained multi-month uptrend–the only kind in which I can make big money………………………………..

I am beginning to look for stocks to short.  I ran a scan of the market to find stocks in consistent declines (falling rockets).  One industry that came up a lot was steel and iron mining stocks:  TONS, ROCK, WPSC, AKS, GNA, RESC, CGA.  Another sector that came up often was Telecom services-foreign:  DT, KPN, PT, TCP, SCM, CTC.  Should I add them to my short list?

Happy July 4th holiday to all.

Send your feedback and questions to: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

GMI: +3; Cramer defines Madmoney amid weak picks; I’m buying puts

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

I made it back from vacation in time to post tonight.  Are you convinced yet that we are in a decline–day 5 (D-5) to be exact?  Yes, I did sell my CME too soon, it soared 50 points after I sold it.  If I had not planned to be away from the market part of this week, I would have been content to just set close sell stops.  Gmi630 But with the GMI weakening, I did not want to risk losing any of my profit from this relatively short rally. We remain at +3 with the indexes rapidly weakening.  Only 16% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose today, along with 27% of the S&P 500 and 7% (2) of the Dow 30 stocks. Note that less than one half (121 or 42%) of the 291 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher today than 10 days ago.  71% of the stocks in my universe of 4,000 closed above their 10 week average. 

While on vacation, I watched Cramer yesterday warn his audience that "madmoney" pertains only to extra funds that a person has–excluding pensions, IRA’s and 529 plans.  Gis In other words, don’t speculate with those assets which you need for the future and can’t risk.  I think maybe he is retreating in the face of some of his disastrous picks.  Take a look at General Mills, one of his "safe" stocks that he has been touting for weeks as a defensive stock. We all need to own safe, defensive stocks like this. I guess Cramer would call GIS a "bargain" now. If you don’t like this one, take MSFT or CSCO or DIS, other Cramer picks that have weak charts.  (He did get CME and GOOG right thus far, however.)

I am critical of Cramer because I think he is misinforming the public.  He tells everyone never to use market orders-just use limit orders.  But he fails to add that a limit order may fail to get you out of a rapidly declining stock.  (If you place an order to sell a stock at a limit of 20–$20 or better—-you will not be sold out if the stock opens below 20 and keeps declining.  This is why the really successful traders use stop orders that get them out of a stock at market– next best price available. When things turn bad, I want to get out immediately, and do not quibble about getting the extra nickel or dime or quarter per share. So what if the broker rips off a few more pennies, as Cramer claims–I lose much more if I fail to buy a rocket or sell a loser.

And then Cramer has the audacity to say that he has tried all of the analytic software and it does not work.  Charting is worthless–you need to concentrate on fundamentals, he says.  Well, first of all, most people do not equate technical analysis with mindless software programs that replace the trader’s insights with automatic buys and sells.  And most successful technical analysts (O’Neil, Darvas, Weinstein, Livermore–check out the book listed to the right by John Boik) incorporate fundamental analysis with their chart patterns.  You can have a great company, but if no one discovers it or if it takes years, it is not going to make you a fortune in your lifetime. The charts help me to time my buys and sells and to discriminate between promising stocks.

Finally, I think that it is irresponsible to urge people to buy more of the same stock as it declines.  The great successful gurus all tell people NEVER to average down, to spend good money after bad.  I think I know why Cramer preaches what he does.  He is among the few lucky persons who built their fortune in the great market bubble of the late 90’s.  During that time one could buy a tech stock as it fell and then be saved as the market climbed to a new peak.  (However, note that Cramer had to be saved by his wife, the trading goddess, a number of times when his losing positions almost drove him out of business.)  But TODAY, gone are the days of the bull stampede when you could buy a declining tech stock knowing that a crowd of greater fools would eventually buy it back from you.  Cramer’s methods are simply out of step with the post-bubble, less bullish market environment……………………….

So, I am mostly in cash.  I do own puts on a stock and on a market index.  This year could turn out to be typical of post-election years that are followed by a year of miserable stock market performance.

Send your feedback and questions to: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

GMI: +3; Interest rate indicator gaps up

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

I managed to steal a few minutes before I start my vacation toGmi628  update the GMI.  It is still +3 after a strong day today.  80% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 86% of the S&P500 and 93% of the Dow 30 stocks. The Daily SPY Index is too close to call but the QQQQ looks like it is still in a down trend (D-3).  I could easily be wrong, but this looks to me like a weak bounce from the selling of last week.  The QQQQ volume on the rebound is a lot lower than when it declined. It would take a close or two above 37.75 on the QQQQ (now at 37.15) to turn my daily indicator positive.

I am a little worried (conundrum?) about interest rates.  Irx628 The short term interest rate indicator gapped higher today to yet another new peak.  (Click on chart to enlarge.) I think we will know in a few days whether the speculators are right.  I don’t think it is good for equities.

I will post again Friday evening.

Send your feedback and questions to: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

GMI: +3; Back this weekend.

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

The GMI rebounded to +3 today.  Gmi627 There were 103 successful 10 day highs and 101 new highs today.  Today was the second day of the decline (D-2).  The percentage of stocks that closed above their 10 week average declined to 68%.  All QQQQ and SPY indicators are negative.

I remain mostly in cash and am looking for possible shorts.  There is a story that when one of the Rothschild’s was asked why he was so successful, he replied that he always sold too soon.  I clearly sold GOOG too soon.  I sold not because of any technical weakness in GOOG, but because my market indicators turned down.  I don’t want to own any stocks when my general market indicators are weak.

I also went to cash because I will be away from the market and my computer for a few days.  It will be nice to take a few days off.  I will post again this weekend and wish you all a successful trading week.  It will be nice to have Alan G. and this quarter behind us.

Send your feedback and questions to: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

Can Cramer hedge? GMI sinks to +1; Content to remain in cash

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

We should have known that when Cramer finally jumped on the tech bandwagon it probably was topping out.  He is brave to make such explicit predictions.  But I think he is therein sowing the seeds of his show’s  destruction.  No one knows what will happen in the market.  So, by definition, a brave pundit must be proved wrong eventually–to join the long ranks of the fallen gurus, including Gazarelli, Joseph-Cohen and Granville, etc……………..I know Cramer has retired his hedge fund, but it looks like he has forgotten how to hedge………………..

I went to 95% cash in my IRA and 100% money market funds in my university pension.  While GOOG was strong, I sold that too.  Did you ever notice the strange phenomenon that a popular stock like GOOG can often resist a general market decline and then decline when the market strengthens? You begin to think, boy, if this stock can stay strong in a weak market it really should rise when the market moves up!  Then it declines.  Maybe traders rotate into the rebounding "bargain" stocks.

Because I trade in tax deferred accounts, I do not care if I get out too soon, or at the wrong time.  I merely buy back when I think the trend is clear again and the odds favor a rise–no tax consequences.  Being out of the market provides a mental catharsis and is good for the psyche and the bottom line. I can step back and be amused by all of the conflicting pontifications of the media analysts.  Explaining the market action after it has occurred  reminds me of that famous definition of history–"games people play on the dead."  Show me a person who can explain the market action BEFORE it happens.  Now, there is a perspicacious pundit worth listening to……………………………..

The GMI sank to +1 Friday.  Gmi624_1 There were only 89 successful 10 day new highs (new high 10 days ago that closed higher Friday than 10 days earlier, see post on 4/26).  There were only 94 new highs (and 45 new lows) Friday in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The daily and weekly QQQQ indexes turned negative.  The SPY daily index needs one more day to turn negative. Only the IBD growth mutual fund index remains positive, but is declining towards its 50 day average. The percentage of stocks closing above their 10 week average declined to 70%.

As I see it, we are in day one of the decline (D-1).  However, turning points can be tricky and it is easy to get whipsawed.  If we get to D-4 next week I will begin to look for stocks or indexes that I can buy puts on.  Right now I am content to remain in cash.  The market’s true proclivities will be revealed after the end of the month/quarter and after we know if Alan is done being Fed up with the market (interest rate market, that is).

Send your feedback and questions to: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.