Market rally over? My refined strategy for timing exits and entries; Recent GLB: $LITE

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I spent a lot of time over spring break last week reviewing the market and my technical approach. I gained a renewed interest in the value of daily RWB charts.  RWB charts consist of 12 exponential moving averages (see this blog’s glossary for definitions) plus a simple one day average to show the daily close. Daily RWB charts move more quickly than weekly charts and provide possible exit points for stops that are closer to my entry points. Minimizing losses are critical to trading success.

I developed 3 quantitative measures that  help me to characterize a daily RWB chart pattern. The total line count (TLC) is a count of the averages that fall into line with the close and each average higher than the next longer average. A perfect TLC of 12 means that the current price is higher than all the remaining averages that are lined up in order below it. This daily chart shows a TLC=12. The dotted line is the daily close.

The purple dots show each daily low and provide a way of assessing volatility and support for placing stops. The red line count (RLC) counts the number of the 6 red line averages (shorter averages) that the close is above. It goes from 0-6. The blue line count (BLC) counts the number of blue averages that the close is above (0-6). The top line of this chart indicates that CRTO has values of 12/6/6. (TLC/RLC/BLC) which is a perfect score. Note the wide white space between the rising red and blue lines. This is the pattern of a RWB up-trend. I only buy equities that are  in an RWB up-trend.

As a stock starts to weaken, the RLC will quickly decline. A possible first exit or place for me to reduce a position is when the stock closes below all of the red lines and RLC=0,  But as long as the BLC=6 the stock is above the 6 blue lines and the up-tend may continue. If any red line crosses below a blue line the white space has disappeared and I must sell the stock. The stock must stay in an RWB up-trend for me to buy or hold it. If the stock registers 0/0 (RLC/BLC) it is another warning to exit.

My strategy is to own strong up-trending stocks that have recently rested and are now resuming their advance. I look for stocks in an RWB up-trend which have recent oversold indicators. In addition, the RLC must currently be back to 6 (of 6) and leading all 12 averages higher. The TLC must also be at 12, ensuring that it is an RWB pattern and all averages have lined up perfectly. My TC2000 scan finds such stocks by identifying those that have had a lower Bollinger Band bounce or  low stochastics in the last 5 days plus a rising relative strength versus the S&P500.

Two Dow stocks meet these criteria now, MCD and MSFT. I will just show MCD as an example, never as a recommendation. MCD is a 12/6/6 (TLC/RLC/BLC) but had  low stochastics within the last 5 days (not shown). If I bought MCD on Monday, likely around 129,34, my first partial exit could be at the lowest red line (currently 128.39, on second line in above chart). A close below its top blue line (127.45) would be a greater sign of weakness. If a red line declines into the blue lines,  the RWB disappears entirely and I must exit. What I really like about this approach is that my exit/stop points can be quite close to my purchase price. Note that MCD has not closed even once below all of its red lines since late January! The purple dots show a few times where the daily low closed in the white space but the stock always closed back within the red lines. It may therefore be preferable to avoid such whipsaws by employing mental stops and assessing each position for a signal near the close each day.

AAPL has also never closed below its red lines since January, but it has weakened a little to a 11/4/6. For now,  its RWB pattern remains very much intact.

Recent GLB, LITE, has a rebounding  12/6/6 RWB pattern after retesting its green line. My scan would have picked it up lower, below $50.

 

GS provides an example of how a stock’s up-trend turns into a down-trend. GS is now a 5/0/0.  This method might have gotten me out around 246 when the RWB pattern disappeared, or earlier, around 250, when the white space was first encroached by the daily close. Note also the entry set-up last February when RLC=6 after weakness.

 

This technique also works well for me to analyze ETFs and market indexes. The current readings for the major indexes are: SPY 6/0/3, DIA 6/0/4 and QQQ 9/1/6. Thus the SPY and DIA have both closed below all of their red lines but are still above 3 or 4 of their blue lines. Their RWB advance is over for now. The QQQ is above 1 red line and all of its blue lines and still has a RWB pattern. Below is SPY and QQQ.

 

So the QQQ remains in an RWB up-trend pattern, though it has weakened. Note that it closed above all red lines much of the time since February. The SPY (and DIA) are wounded and if  their BLC turns 0, it will suggest at least a likely short term decline. A BWR decline pattern could suggest much more weakness………

Because of its focus heavily on the QQQ, the GMI remains Green. The QQQ short term trend count is U-73, and approaching the longest such up-trend since 2006, which ended at 88 days (U-88). The end of this QQQ short term up-trend is likely imminent, but it is better to react to a technical signal than to try to act in advance.

 

 

 

 

How I use daily RWB charts to size up the market and individual stocks; run my new scan

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For many years I have been  a fan of Stan Weinstein’s Stage Analysis (see his book on this page). That approach looks at a stock’s price compared to its 30 week moving average. A lot of analysts use this technique. My students all know to only buy or hold stocks that are above a rising 30 week average,  or in a Weinstein Stage II. This is one of the six components I assess in my GMI (see table below).

Another approach I like to use is an adaptation of the 12 exponential moving averages that Australian technical analyst Daryl Guppy uses. His GMMA (Guppy multiple moving averages)  plots the following weekly moving averages (six short averages 3,5,8,10,12,15 and 6 longer term averages 30,35,40,45,50,60).

I have developed  a modified chart using the 12 exponential averages plus a simple average =1 which shows the close each period on the chart. The six shorter averages are red and the six longer term averages are blue. The dotted line on the chart is the close each period. The background is always white. The period depends on the time period of the chart shown.

I have been using the weekly charts to show a RWB (red/white/blue) up-trend when the red averages are rising above the rising blue averages such that there is a white space between them. A BWR down-trend is simply the reverse pattern.

I recently came to the conclusion that the weekly chart is good for showing the longer term trend but not very useful for timing entries and exits. It just takes too long for the weekly averages to show a change in trend. I have therefore decided to focus mainly on RWB daily charts. I also added a plot of the new single day average of the daily lows to show the low price of the equity each day (purple dots). These dots can aid in visualizing support and where to place stops.

This daily chart helps me to immediately determine the short term trend. An advancing equity will have a RWB pattern with the daily price (dotted line) above all 12 lines and leading all of the shorter term (red averages) averages higher. I now compute and show on each chart a count of the number of red averages that the equity is above (RLC or red line count). Thus an advancing equity will have a maximum value of 6 of 6. A value of 0 means the equity is below all of the red averages. This is a signal to me for caution. As long as the stock remains in an RWB pattern it is still advancing, but if the RLC is 0 I might raise my stop. I would definitely sell out my position  if the red lines converge with the blue lines so that the white space between them disappears.

It is much easier to demonstrate the above description with an equity. Here is the daily chart of QQQ.

 

The QQQ has been in an RWB up-trend since last December. There was one day, December 30, when the QQQ closed below its red lines and entered the blue lines. But the RWB pattern never disappeared. For most of the days since then the QQQ (dotted line) closed above all of the red lines. As of Friday, the QQQ closed above only 5 of the 6 red lines. Note the 5 at the end of  the top line of my chart. This is the red line count (RLC). What caught my attention was this daily chart of the SPY.

The RLC=0 for the SPY! While this is not a huge sign of weakness, it is the first time it has happened since January. In those cases the SPY rebounded right away. Will it do so on Monday? The RLC=2  for the DIA and is also showing an RLC rarely seen since this rally began. What really concerned me was this chart of the Dow Jones Transportation Average.

Not only is the RLC=0 but the RWB pattern is totally gone and the DJ-20 has now closed below all of the red and blue averages. This may be significant because one classic way of sizing up the market trend is the Dow Theory, which uses the Industrial and Transportation Indexes. A strong economy and market should show up in strong rails and airlines….

I also find the daily RWB charts very useful for analyzing individual stocks. I use TC2000 to scan for stocks in a steady RWB daily up-trend that have recently been oversold. The RWB chart shows me where I might place my sell stop if I make a purchase. I either want to sell if the stock returns below the lowest rising red line (which will be the 15 day exponential moving average) or if it breaks recent support. I can find these levels easily by looking at the pattern of daily lows (purple dots) or the values of the 15 day exponential average which appears on the second line of each chart in large digits. Here is an example of a stock that came up in my scan for daily RWB stocks that have been oversold and resumed their advance. This is not a recommendation for purchase and is for illustrative purposes only.

AZPN is a strong stock (up 70% this year) that is in an RWB pattern. The RLC=6, indicating that AZPN has closed back above all of its red lines. The value of its lowest red line is 58.51 (second line, big digits after next earnings date) and a conservative place for a sell stop might be just below this level. AZPN has rarely closed below all of its red lines.  However, the purple dots show that the daily lows of AZPN have recently been below all of the red lines. This is to be expected because this scan looks for stocks that were recently oversold (low stochastics). So a more liberal stop might be below its lowest recent daily low, somewhat less than 58. Note also the above average trading volume on Friday’s rise. One thing I do not like about AZPN is its low recent quarterly earnings, up only +9%.

I like this scan a lot. But I suspect that if the averages rest over the next few days, these set-ups will fail. We are approaching the end of first quarter period. Often times there is a brief decline that sets-up end of quarter window dressing by the mutual funds. So I am watching very carefully this week while I am out on spring break.

I ran this scan on my list of stocks that have hit an all-time high since I started informally aggregating them this year. The scan identified  59 stocks. If you want to run this scan, go to my TC2000 Club and access the scan from 03182017. This scan is further described in the glossary to this blog page. Let me know if it works well for you, please.

The GMI is at 5 (of 6)  and the GMI-2 is 6 (of 8), but note that the two negative components in the GMI-2 (stochastics and MACD) are the most sensitive ones and the first to weaken if the QQQ is ending its up-trend. My up-trend count is now U-68, closing in on the longest short term up-trend since 2006 (88 days).

 

52nd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; Market indexes extended

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I learned this idea from my stock buddy, Judy. Whenever a rising stock or index floats above its rising simple 4 week average (the weekly low is well above the average), that security often times is extended and  it reverts to the average. This weekly chart of the SPY shows times in the recent past when this index ETF has become extended according to this definition. The red dotted line is the 4 week average. We may be facing a consolidation or brief pause now as DIA and QQQ are also showing this pattern.

 

On David Ryan and my new #TC2000 scan for GLB rockets bouncing off up of support: $PLAY

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One of my favorite stock gurus, David Ryan, William O’Neil’s protege, when asked about the types of set-ups he looks for, said:

“I basically simplify it down to two, breakouts and pullbacks. Don’t get confused by all the different formations. You don’t really have to look for cup with handles, or saucers, or “W” formations. You just have to draw a line across the top of where most of the stock’s trading has taken place. Then you buy as it moves through that line. It is as simple as that. I always like to see a very tight price pattern before the stock breaks to new highs. Buying pullbacks are a bit more complicated but offer another entry point to get aboard a leading stock.”

Momentum Masters, Mark Minervini, David Ryan, Dan Zanger and Marl Ritchie II, 2015, p. 72.

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Momentum Masters  compares  answers to a series of  questions asked of four of the best stock traders ever. I highly recommend it. By the way, David Ryan is doing a webcast for IBD on his current take of the market this week. Click the link or go to investors.com for information to register.

Ryan’s quote above really fits in well with my trading strategy. I draw a green line at a stock’s all time high that has not been surpassed for at least 3 months. I then look for a break above that line (Green Line Break-out, GLB). I set an alert in TC2000 to tell me when the GLB occurs and when it does I then inspect the stock for signs of unusual break-out volume and good fundamentals. Alternatively, and more often, I look for a stock near or just above a recent GLB that has pulled back and become over-sold and started to rise. If I buy it, I place my sell stop close, just below the recent bounce/support. I never know if a bounce will work out, but if it fails, I exit with a small loss. That is the key to  this game–a few large gains and many small losses. Many successful traders say they are right on fewer than 50% of their trades.

This weekend I created a new TC2000 scan that you can run yourself when you get TC2000 (See $25 coupon offer at top of this page). All of the students in my new honors class will learn how to use TC2000. Once on TC2000, join my Club and select this scan: 01292017ATHhipast40daysBLBB. All of my publicly available free scans are described in the Glossary tab for this blog. This new scan looks at all stocks in my ongoing WatchList of about 800 stocks that have recently hit an all-time high (ATH). It finds the subset of them that hit a new high in the past 40 days and that is now bouncing from up from its lower Bollinger Band.  In simple words, the scan finds rocket stocks trading near their ATH that have recently hit their peak and that have since pulled back and started up. I next look to see if the stock is above its last GLB. Many stocks rise after their GLB and then pull back and resume their advance. PLAY is one of the 15 stocks that came up in this scan, which I give as an example.

PLAY gapped up on unusually high volume in December and then traded sideways since. Last Friday it bounced off of its lower 15.2 daily BB and closed near its high of the day. Is this the beginning of a resumption of its rise?  No one knows, but it might be. If on Monday PLAY  trades higher than Friday’s high of 54.88, I might get interested enough to buy some. Unlike a break-out, a bounce does not require higher volume. The low trading volume is a sign that the selling has dried up. Note from the line at the top of this chart that PLAY is due to report earnings on 4/4 and last quarter’s earnings were up +127% according to stats in TC2000. It has a recent short ratio of 7.2 and is up 47% over the past year. It is also on the current IBD50 list with a COMP rating of 93 and EPS rating of 99–not too shabby….

Meanwhile the GMI remains at 6 (of 6).

 

12th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $QQQ and $CDW have an RWBCount= 12

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For a long time I have thought that my adapted Guppy charts composed of 13 weekly moving averages provide an excellent method for identifying stocks in a significant up-trend. Six of the exponential averages are red (3,5,8,10,12,15) and 6 longer term averages (30,35,40,45,50,60) are blue. When all the red averages are rising above the blue averages such that there is a white space between them, this constitutes a red white and blue (RWB) up-trend. I also add a 13th average (1) as a dotted line which shows the closing price each week. When all 13 averages line up with each shorter average rising above the next one (1>3>5>8……..60) this constitutes a really strong up-trend. I have created a new indicator that counts the number of averages that are rising above each longer average. The indicator, called the RWBCount, goes from 0-12. This indicator can be applied to both ETFs and individual stocks and in the future I will often provide the RWBCount.  Below is a weekly chart of the QQQ, which has an RWBCount=12. Note that each line is above the next one. The RWBCount for DIA=12 and the SPY=12. So right now all 3 indexes are in very strong RWB up-trends.

NVDA has an RWBCount=12 and has been 11 or more for months. Note how weekly price leads all of the averages up.

There is no way to know when an RWB pattern will end. I strive to  hop on  stocks with an RWBCount=11 or12 when they bounce up off of support and ride them until the trend ends. By the way, 60% of the Dow 30 stocks have an RWBCount=12. The current Dow dogs are: PFE (5), WMT (5), KO (3) NKE (2). Here is what a “2” looks like.

And a stock not in the Dow, GILD= “0”

Get the picture–I call such stocks BWR or submarine stocks and consider them for shorting…

CDW is an example of a stock with an RWBCount=12 that bounced off of support last Friday. I took a position and placed my stop right below Friday’s low. If for any reason CDW declines on Monday so that I am sold out, I will take my small loss–no emotion. (A stock does not have to rise just because I think it should!) On the other hand, if CDW holds Friday’s low, I will ride it as long as its RWBCount remains high (11 or 12). My goal will be to ride the strong up-trend until it ends and not to try to hop off the first time it shows signs of weakness. Why sell a stock in a strong up-trend? If CDW should rise a few percent, I will move my stop up to break-even. Small losses and large gains–that is the way to succeed in this game. The daily chart of CDW is below. Note the recent green line break-out (GLB) to an all-time high and Friday’s bounce up off of the 30 day average (red line) and its lower 15.2 daily Bollinger Band. Earnings are set for release on 2/14/2017.

Here is the RWB chart for CDW. In the near future I will publish a scan for finding stocks with IRBCount of 11 or 12 that are bouncing off of support. You can sign up for access to my free TC2000 scans at wishingwealthblog.com/club.

The GMI remains at 5 (of 6).

 

 

 

New TC2000 Scan yields 4 break-outs from consolidation: $WB, $SINA $HPP $ARCW

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I wrote a post last week about the benefits of focusing on weekly charts. Weekly charts, unlike daily charts,  more clearly show me the trend and are less likely to make me exit a strong stock too soon. I spent some time this weekend trying to write a scan for TC2000 that would bring up growth stocks emerging from a multi-week consolidation. The scan required a minimum amount of weekly volume and the stock must have shown above average weekly trading volume on the week of the break-out. The company must also have shown an increase in the latest quarterly earnings of at least  +50%. Four stocks out of approximately 4900 US stocks were selected by this scan.  Given the strong market environment, many stocks have already broken out. After running a scan like this  I can then research the stocks for possible entry, looking at both technicals and fundamentals.

This weekly chart of one of the four stocks,  WB, is fully annotated so you can see how I have set up my charts to quickly show other critical information contained in the TC2000 database. Arrow A shows that WB had  latest quarterly earnings up 500%.  Arrow B shows the latest short interest ratio was 3.6 (This means that it would take about 3.6 days to cover all of the shares speculators have sold short, at the stock’s recent average daily trading volume. The higher the number, the greater the buying pressure from a break-out.) Arrow C shows that the stock price is currently 2.64 times its price 250 days ago. (I like to buy stocks that have already doubled in the past year. Stocks, like people, tend to repeat their past behavior.) Arrow D shows WB’s projected next earnings reporting date, a new feature in Version 16 of TC2000. The green oval shows last week’s break-out above a declining trend (purple line) on above average weekly volume. In fact, this was the highest weekly volume for WB since September 2014! It could signify the resumption of the up-trend or it could mean nothing….

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Another stock that came out of this scan was SINA. I did not annotate the remaining stocks. If you have read this far I know you can interpret the remaining weekly charts using the above example.

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And HPP.

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And ARCW.

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I do not know if any of these stocks will keep rising. But the market has been strong and many stocks have already broken out to new highs. Only WB and HPP are flirting with their all-time highs, a valuable characteristic. Both are above recent Green Line Break-outs (GLB). I like to buy stocks that have advanced a lot, then rested for a few weeks, and then break out of their consolidation on unusually high volume.

If you have TC2000, I have started making some of my scans and watchlists available to my students  in a TC2000 library (Club, Dr. Wish). If you want access to my library, provide your name and email below and receive the free link in your email.

Current TC2000 Users, Join my club:

If you do not already subscribe to TC2000, you can get a $25 discount (new subscribers only) by clicking here or going to: http://www.tc2000.com/bonus/WWB  (Additionally, your sign-up will generate a small commission for us to keep the lights on, so, thank you.)

You might also attend one of the many Worden TC2000 free training workshops when they come to a city near you. Ask them for a schedule at support@worden.com. That is how I began learning how to use TC2000 the past 20+ years. They also now post many video TC2000 tutorials on their site. If you follow me on Twitter I often tweet out interesting stocks intraday: @wishingwealth  (no guarantees, of course, stocks I tweet about are for readers’ own education, further research and consideration).

Meanwhile the market remains strong with the GMI at 6 (of 6) and the GMI-2 at 7 (of 8). And the new QQQ short term up-trend has now reached its critical 5th day.  According to my analysis of QQQ short term trends over the past 10 years, once a new up-trend lasts 5 days, it has a 75% chance of reaching 11-88 days. Take a look at the GLB tracker to the right of this page to see how well GLB stocks have been doing in this strong market up-trend. Nothing like a strong market to make everyone look like a genius!

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Short and long term trends now up; On using weekly charts to stay in a growth stock: $NTES

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The DIA, SPY and QQQ index ETFs are all above their 10 week averages again! Stocks are breaking out everywhere. But how to ride them to big proftis? If you are like me, you often hop on a growth stock, only to sell out prematurely on weakness that you spotted on a daily chart, and the stock continues to climb much higher without you. The great gurus I follow say that the key to making big money trading is that when the rare pick starts to really work out, stay with it until it shows genuine signs of weakening. Jesse Livermore, the consummate trader,  would often say that he hated to lose his position in a rising stock because he had sold out too quickly. In this new day of instant financial data feeds, I suspect one of the enemies of staying with a good stock (at least for swing traders)  is focusing on charts with daily and shorter time periods to signal an exit. I am told that the great William ONeil, founder of IBD, used only weekly charts because they more clearly revealed to him the meaningful stock trends. If I checked my blood pressure or cholesterol daily or hourly, I suspect I might see  a lot of noise and volatility that would make it harder to obtain a valid assessment of my longer term status.

As a solution to this problem, I have found it very helpful to focus on weekly charts using three simple moving averages: 4wk, 10wk and 30wk. An advancing growth stock will have a pattern of the 4wk>10wk>30wk for long periods of time, in addition to being near an all-time high. During a strong advance the stock will go many weeks without ever closing below its 4wk average. Once the stock closes below its 4wk it is a potential sign of weakening at which point I might raise my stops or sell a little. A weekly close below the 10week is a call for me to exit my position immediately. Growth stocks should not close the week below their 10 week average.

A weekly chart is worth a 1,000 words, so it will be easier to demonstrate this strategy with an example. NTES showed the 4>10>30 pattern from June, 2016 through November, or for about 21 weeks (4wk=red dotted line, 10wk=blue dotted, 3o wk=red solid). During that time the stock rose over 40%.  During this period, NTES closed  the week below its 4wk average only 3 times. I say closed the week because a stock often trades intraweek below its 4wk average only to find support and close the week back above it. This strategy therefore works well for part-time traders like me who are able to review their stocks over the weekend or near Friday’s close. I am looking for weekly closes below the 4wk after several weeks of closing above it and for any close below the 10 wk average. In early November, NTES closed below its 4wk and then its 10week, a clear signal for me to exit (if I had owned it). Note that NTES is still in a Stage 2 advance, above its rising 30 week average, and I would consider purchasing it with a weekly close back above the 10 week average.

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Note how this strategy would have kept one in NVDA: (I wish I had used it!)

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I often tell my students not to take what I teach them on faith, but to test everything for themselves. Go  out and look at the weekly charts of stocks you are trading and see if this method could have helped you. I have too many times been prematurely shaken out of a stock by focusing on its daily movements, only to see that a glance at its weekly chart could have given me the confidence to ride it higher.  This method slows down my selling. I described this strategy in greater detail  in a 2012 speech to the Houston Worden TC2000 Users group. A link to the archived webinar appears here and to the right of this page.

Meanwhile the GMI is back to 6 (of 6) and the QQQ short term trend is now up (U-1).

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