Blog Post: Day 31 of $QQQ short term down-trend and GMI=GMI2=0; I have been warning you since February 4 that cash was king; And this may still be just the beginning of a major decline. See modified daily Guppy charts of QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM.

@ 10:46 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-20/9
T210823%

I publish this blog to just share with readers what I am doing. I have managed to avoid all major declines since 2000. I would tell my students that if they were crossing the street and saw a car coming towards them at full speed, they should not argue with the truck or assume the driver  will stop. They should get the hell out of the way. That is what we have to do with the market. When my indicators turn down, I get out and wait for things to turn up. All my indicators are now negative but the 30 week average has yet to turn down. That will signal to me the BEGINNING of a Stage 4 decline and has in the past led me to exit  safely before major market declines. I am deeply saddened for persons, especially retiring boomers, who are seeing their hard earned savings evaporate.

The major indexes are in daily BWR down-trends. A picture is worth a thousand words.

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Blog Post: Day 27 of $QQQ short term down-trend; GMI =0 and RED; More new US 52 week lows than highs; This weekly chart shows possible beginning of an ominous Weinstein Stage 4 down-trend; I remain safely in cash and watching the Worden T2108 indicator. But oversold bounce possible.

@ 9:09 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-21/9
T210823%

If the 30 week average curves down, it could signal the BEGINNING of a major down-trend. That signal got me out of all large declines since 2000. I refuse to put my $$$ at risk. I do not mind buying back higher if/when the trend turns up. I cannot tolerate a major drawdown in my retirement accounts. Younger people can hold on with the belief that the market always comes back. After the 1929 top, the Dow took 25 years to come back. I can’t wait a long time for my account to recover.  The market is severely oversold now, however, so we may see a quick short term bounce. Note the above average trading volume on the recent weekly declines.

I can make $$$ trading long  when the GMI is Green and above 3. QQQ has had its 10 week average rising above its 30 week average for 38 straight weeks. The 10 week average is now declining.  If it should decline to below the 30 week average, it would be quite ominous for the bulls. Watch T2108, now at 23%. If/when it declines to below 10%, I often told my students to buy a little SPY, not individual stocks,  and only to buy more very  slowly with each purchase at higher prices. I react to the market’s actions, not the news or opinions.
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Blog Post: Day 24 of $QQQ short term down-trend; $SPY and $DIA join $QQQ in daily BWR down-trends. Staying long now is fighting the market’s trend. See also what a daily RWB up-trend looked like for $QQQ that began in May, 2025. That is the pattern to be long.

@ 7:19 pm
GMI1/6
GMI-24/9
T210832%

When the shorter averages (red) decline below the longer term averages (blue) leaving a white space between them, it is a daily BWR down-trend. I will not hold long positions except money market funds or treasury ETFs  (TBIL). Dotted line shows daily closes. This is my modified Guppy chart based on Daryl Guppy’s GMMA indicator. Guppy’s book is listed on this blog.

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Note what a daily  RWB up-trend looked like beginning last May. Ignore the news and opinions and let the market guide our trading.