GMI:+4; More new lows than highs

The GMI remains at +4 and in danger of falling again today if we have fewer than 100 successful ten day break-outs.  Gmi0412 Between 55-57% of stocks in the QQQQ, SPY and DIA rose on Wednesday.  There were 55 new yearly lows and 46 new highs, an ominous sign.  Only 35% of the 4,000 stocks in the universe I follow are in a short term up trend, the lowest since March 10.  Wednesday was the twelfth day (U-12) in the current short term up trend in the QQQQ.

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GMI falls to +4; Getting defensive

The GMI declined on Tuesday.  Break out stocks are failing.  Only 41% of the stocks that hit a new high ten days ago closed higher Tuesday than they did ten days earlier.  Gmi0411 The Daily SPY index turned negative and the GMI-S fell to 38.  Between 13-23% of the stocks in the QQQQ, DIA and SPY rose on Tuesday.  Only the majority (75%) of the short term indicators for the QQQQ remain positive.  While the short term up trend in the QQQQ is still intact, I am raising stops and becoming defensive………

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GMI:+6; watch market reaction to good earnings

The GMI stayed at +6 as stocks tread water.  41% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday along with 48% of S&P stocks and 53% of Dow 30 stocks.Gmi0410 There were minor changes in my indicators.  Monday was the tenth day of the QQQQ short term up trend (U-10). We need to wait to see whether the current weakness is just a pause or the start of a larger decline.  How stocks react to good earnings releases should help us to divine the market trend…..

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GMI:+6; Large caps weaken

The GMI remains at +6, but the large cap stocks have weakened, at least in the short term.  The GMI-S has fallen to 50, primarily because the Dow 30  and the S&P 500 indexes have declined.  Gmi0407 Only 20% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday along with just 13% of the S&P 500 stocks and 10%  of the Dow 30 stocks.  Friday was the ninth day in the QQQQ short term up trend (U-9).  Most of the indicators in the table declined.  But the QQQQ remains in a nice up trend, having completed its second consecutive week above its 10 week moving average. 

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GMI: +6; techs lead advance

The GMI remains at a maximum of +6 and the QQQQ is in its eighth day of its short term up trend (U-8) .  All systems are go with the leaders, GOOG and AAPL, moving up again.  Gmi0406_1 It has been a long time since the indexes have been in "harmoney."  The QQQQ is about to complete its second weekly close above its ten week average, the sine qua non for tech stock trading profits on the long side.  51% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 39% of the S&P 500 stocks and 20% of the Dow 30 stocks.  I am taking advantage of this up trend while it lasts, probably until first quarter earnings are all released.  Don’t forget the market maxim, "go away in May."  We must watch closely for a top in the tech leaders after April.

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