Blog post: Markets looking weak; IBD changed outlook to up-trend under pressure, GMI falls to 3 and could reach 2 Monday; $QQQ short term up-trend could end Monday; $TLT break-out fails

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I am surprised that with so many market pundits opining about “weak September” the market seems to be complying. But weak it is, for now. I am looking for the put/call ratio to rise above 1 for  a meaningful bounce to occur. It closed at .71 on Friday. So many stocks have failed break-outs, and even TLT did so, suggesting higher interest rates. Now is the time for me to be very defensive, raise stops and make no new long purchases. It is so much easier to make money going long when the GMI is 5 or 6.

 

SPY has now closed below its 10 week average.

 

Blog post: Day 14 of $QQQ short term up-trend but GMI=4, huge event risk, end of quarter window dressing–cash is king; Will $AAPL hold green line?

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I am very cautious with the GMI falling to 4 (of 6) and with the current huge event risk: September/October seasonal weakness, a likely fight over raising the debt limit and possible Fed tapering. One positive element  for me is possible mutual fund window dressing the last week of September (end of 3rd quarter)  when strong stocks get bought up by funds trying to spruce up their quarterly reports. We shall see. I think the best position now may be cash. AAPL had a rough day Friday and needs to hold its green line. A failed GLB would be a bad sign for the general market indexes.