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Everywhere I turn I find articles on GOOG. Cramer was on CNBC today and on his MadMoney show this evening, taking credit for being an early believer in this stock. (I have to admit I became interested in GOOG after listening to Cramer’s reasoning about projected earnings and suitable PE levels.) This is all fine, but when the bandwagon gets so crowded I become a little skeptical. And when the chart starts to go into a vertical rise on the highest daily volume in 4 months, I need to take stock (pun intended). The stock is very far from its 50 day average. I think GOOG is an excellent long term play. And I suspect that there will be serious buying at the end of this month (quarter too). Cramer mentioned this possibility today, too–he must have read my post yesterday about mutual fund end-of-quarter window dressing. So, even if we get this end of the month surge in GOOG, we still could get some weakness before then. I do not know what will happen, nobody does. Therefore I intend to hold my shares and not make new purchases until the stock reacts a little or forms a plateau. As you know, I began SLOWLY accumulating GOOG in April after that delicious gap up. Throughout the rise, I have my stops in place just in case something ugly happens. So, for now, I will just watch the action from the sidelines…………………………….
The GMI remains at +5, but is getting close to a +6. This is because there were 243 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. That means we will probably get 100 successful 10 day highs soon. The Nasdaq 100 stocks (measured by the QQQQ) is now in the 18th day of the uptrend (U-18). There were more than 10 times as many new highs today than new lows in my universe of stocks. In addition, 81% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, 80% of the S&P 500 stocks and 77% of the Dow 30 stocks. There were 54 successful 10 day new highs and only 10 successful new lows. (See my post on 4/26 in the archives for components of the GMI.) The train has left the station. The question remains as to where and when the train will stop and/or reverse. Right now, I remain comfortably long stocks with my stops in place just below suitable support levels. I hope all of you are profiting from this uptrend and are not resisting it.
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Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now. I am not providing recommendations for you to follow. My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs. While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog. Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market, and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment. See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.