ETF

GMI: 6; IBD 100 stocks not outperforming: MACD bearish divergence; HANS has had it?

@ 12:01 am

The GMI is still at the maximum of 6 and the trend remains up.   Gmi1110_1 67% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 68% of the S&P 500 and 53% of the Dow 30 stocks.   There were 115 successful 10 day new highs (stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago that closed higher on Friday than 10 days ago) and 183 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.   Friday was the 60th day in the current QQQQ up-trend and that index has closed above its 10 week average for 13 consecutive weeks.   The only serious cloud on the horizon, partially reflected in the GMI-S reading of 75, is that the MACD statistics of the QQQQ, DIA ans SPY   ETF’s have failed to hit new highs   with their indexes.   This bearish divergence is a troubling sign and I am ready to move quickly if the GMI should weaken.   Ibdperf1110

The IBD 100 stocks have been doing about as well as the Nasdaq 100 stocks recently.   Note, however, that only 44% of the stocks on the list published on 10/16 closed higher on Friday than they did of the day the list was published.   Only 5 of those stocks hit a new high on Friday.

As you know, I do not fight the market trend.   However, I think we should watch a real juicy short developing.   After rising for three years, I think HANS looks like it is about to roll over.   Take a look at this   weekly chart. After months where the 10 week average (dotted line) was above its 30 week average (red line), the 10 week average is now below the 30 week which is curving down.   At the bottom you can see the big red spikes representing high volume selling.   I wonder when the bad news will come out.   If I were inclined to fight the general market trend, I would be buying put options on HANS in my IRA…….. Hans_1

GMI: 6; QLD beats all but 12 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks

@ 12:01 am

The GMI held at 6 and 60-65% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Wednesday.   Gmi1108_1 There were 269 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.   Only 53% of the IBD 100 stock list from 10/16 rose and only 3 hit new highs (LVS, CELG and ICLR). Wednesday was the 58th day of the current up-trend in the QQQQ.   The QLD ETF that tries to achieve double the returns of the QQQQ rose 1.35% Wednesday, compared with a rise of .47% for the QQQQ.   Since August 16, the QQQQ has risen 11.5% while the QLD has risen 22.7%.   Only 12 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks (and 26 of the S&P 500 stocks) rose more than the QLD. With these odds it makes little sense to me to trade individual stocks? Clearly, the QLD is the way to go as long as one is in an up-trend.

GMI: 6; Riding QLD

@ 12:01 am

The GMI is still 6.   Only 42% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Tuesday, along with 45% of the S&P 500 stocks and 37% of the Dow 30 stocks.   Still, there were 231 new highs and only 20 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.   Gmi1031_1 Only 64% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day average, down from 88% on 10/16.   Only 40% of the IBD 100 stocks from 10/16 advanced on Tuesday and only 9 hit a new high–COGO,CELG,BLKB,AXR, JLL, HRT, BLUD, NVEC,

IAAC.   Tuesday was the 52nd day of the current QQQQ up-trend.   During that time the QQQQ has risen 10.4% but the ETF that approximates twice its movement advanced 19.8%.   Once the up-trend was established, it became very comfortable for me to just ride the QLD.