The GMI fell to +4 on Thursday, at the same time that the internal indicators showed some strength. Between 71-77% of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks advanced on Thursday. There were 145 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. But only 46% of the 184 stocks that hit a new high ten days ago closed higher Thursday than they did ten days ago. Buying new highs has not been likely to show a profit. The Daily QQQQ Index is too close to call. Thursday was the third day of this down trend (D-3), which shows signs of weakening. 36% of stocks are now in a short term up trend, up from 33% on Tuesday and Wednesday. The percentage of yearly doublers that hit a new high yesterday rose to 13%. I am doing some nibbling, but the market is on the dividing line between up/down trend. I am placing small bets until I can determine the short term trend. The longer term trend remains up, with 65% of stocks above their 10 week averages. Stocks I am watching (some of which I own) are: HUM, MSTR, SNDK, AAPL, CHS, GOOG…………….
The great traders (Livermore, Darvas, Loeb) all suggested that one should focus on a small number of leading stocks. I often say that diversification leads to mediocrity in stock trading. We want to concentrate in our winners and not have them diluted by our losers. I just read similar sentiments by William Harnisch, who wrote that diversification is the "plain vanilla of investing." Some food for thought as you mix your egg nog…..