Market too hot? GLB stocks: $GKOS $HQY; A Judy’s pick: $EXEL

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I have noticed over the years that when many of the rocket stocks I follow all move up together the market is often near the end of a move. This happened last week. Also, after earnings season is over, many stocks rest or go into a decline until the next quarter’s earnings come out. Furthermore, the FANG stocks(FB,AMZN,NFLX,GOOGL)  have performed poorly after earnings came out, even after a beat. So I am taking action to make sure I do not lose much of my recent profits. I am also not holding anything through earnings and I am raising my sell stops on all of my positions…

GKOS, one of the GLB stocks I have tweeted about has been strong. After a false start, a GLB occurred with high volume and the stock has not looked back, but it has now gone vertical. Note that the first GLB in January failed and was followed by a successful one.This is a common occurrence. I often buy back stocks I have been shaken out of which then go on to produce a profitable trade. GKOS is also a possible cup with handle break-out.

One of the scans (01292017ATHhipast40daysBLBB, see this blog’s glossary for a definition) I released in my TC2000 Club (wishingwealthblog.com/club) identified a recent GLB stock, HQY,  in my ATH watchlist that has just bounced off its 15.2 daily lower Bollinger Band. I am watching to see if this stock gains momentum this week. But earnings are due on 2/6. Note the successful GLB in November, followed by a consolidation in December, a rise in January and another consolidation. This is how a growth stock should behave, building base upon base. My strategy  is to buy on a bounce off of support or at a break-out from a base on high volume. HQY came public in 2014 and has more than doubled over the past year.

As many of you know, my stock buddy, Judy, has a great ability to pick winners. She has been talking to me about EXEL for some time and I have started monitoring it. While it is not near its ATH ($50.50, the green line below is from an earlier peak) it is showing promising technical strength. Note the series of base break-outs at A,B,C. Judy is a “concept” focused technical analyst and likes to find stocks that she thinks have great products or are in industries of the future. Someone else apparently agrees with her and is apparently accumulating EXEL…..

All of the GMI and GMI-2 components are positive. Friday was the 39th day (U-39) of the current QQQ short term up-trend. Since the first day of that up-trend on 12/8, QQQ is up +6% and the TQQQ is +19.3%. In that time, GKOS is up +29.9%. HQY +14.7% and EXEL +19.8%.

 

35th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $IPGP soars; $DIS strong

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IPGP, a stock that I have been watching at the suggestion of my brilliant stock buddy, Judy, rose nicely on Monday. I tweeted about it (@wishingwealth) early Monday morning when it moved up on unusually high trading volume, and I nibbled at it. Note the recent GLB to an all-time high.

Why is DIS showing such strength?

6th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; check out the GLB tracker table

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If you had problems on Monday signing up for my TC2000 Club to access some of my scans and watchlists, please email me at ew@wishingwealthblog.com. I will then send you the link.

As you know, I like to buy stocks breaking out of their green line tops (GLB) to an all-time high. On my site you can see the performance of a selection of recent GLB stocks. Here is the latest table:

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10th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; P/C ratio=1.10; $DBC=Stage II up-trend

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With the p/c ratio=1.10 the market may bounce again on Friday.

I have been buying DBC, the commodity tracking index ETF. This weekly chart is showing a new Stage II up-trend. I will hold DBC as long as it holds its 30 week average (red line).

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Performance of $QQQ during GMI signals; GMI to issue new signals; GLB: $FOXF, $FLT

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Below is a plot of the QQQ during periods when the GMI was on a Sell (red) or Buy (green) signal. Decide for yourself if this signal would have helped you stay out of bad markets, as it did for me. The GMI signals are rather conservative because the GMI tends to turn green well after the bottom of a major decline and a new up-trend has become firmly established. It also tends to turn red well after market tops. Such is the nature of trend following indicators!

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A plot of the shorter time period, from 2014-2016, shows more clearly that while the GMI is red during longer declines of the QQQ, it has had a number of times when it turned red right at the bottom of a very brief decline. I therefore do not necessarily exit all positions when the GMI flashes a “Sell” signal but look at additional indicators for confirmation. I am therefore changing the GMI signals from Buy/Sell to Green/Red.   Green signifies to me that conditions favor being in stocks, while Red means the opposite and that extreme caution is needed.

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Speaking of short declines, the GMI  turned Green at last Thursday’s close after being Red for just 8 days. As noted in the charts above, the GMI turns Red after registering 2 consecutive days below 3 and turns Green after 2 consecutive days above 3.

All of the indicators measured by the GMI and GMI-2 are currently positive. In addition, Friday was the 6th day of the new QQQ short term up-trend, which is assessed differently than the GMI signals. Note that the SPY is still (for 3 weeks) below its critical 10 week average.

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FOXF had a GLB on its highest weekly volume since it came public in 2013. FOXF is being added to an index ETF.

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FLT also had a GLB last week.

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New “Students of Dr. Wish” Facebook Group

To help present and former students (and presenters) and their friends and family   to stay in touch with me and their classmates, I have created a new facebook page.   I hope students will use this group to share ideas and questions about trading during and after the course.   It is open to all interested persons with a facebook account at this link. (http://www.facebook.com/#!/group.php?gid=122846224398168).   See you there!