Growth stocks continue to rally; The Ultra long ETF’s, QLD and TYH beat most tech stocks again
With the GMI and GMI-R at their maximum levels, growth stocks continue to rise. AAPL continues to rise, along with PCLN, RMD, GMCR, NFLX and CREE, all of which I own. As you know, I concentrate my trading in stocks at or near their all-time highs. I also like to see good earnings trends. Some of these stocks had recent quarterly earnings increases of 100% or more. The current short term up-trend in the QQQQ has now reached 14 days. During that time, the QQQQ has increased +5.2%, QLD by 10.6% and TYH by 11.1%. In the same period, only 15% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks (and 14% of the S&P 500 stocks) rose 10% or more. Again, we find that in an up-trend, one can beat most Nasdaq 100 stocks (and S&P 500 stocks) by simply buying the ultra long tech ETF’s, QLD and TYH.
AAPL breaks out–T2108 near peak? Tech up-trend looks strong.
The market closed strong on Friday, as AAPL broke out to a new high. Technology is where the action is right now. However, one caution flag is that the T2108 is now at 81%, very near to being in overbought territory. Last May, the T2108 reached a peak at 92%. Meanwhile, the GMI Read more…
KCI–A cup-with-handle break-out?
The short term up-trend in the QQQQ finished its 6th day on Friday. I like the fact that AAPL is holding up. We need to watch the leaders for signs of where the market is headed. I went through the new highs on Friday using the methodology I described last week. In doing so, I found a stock that appears top have broken out from a cup-with handle pattern. So, I am showing it below to provide my class with an example of this important bullish pattern, described by William O’Neil in his book (listed to the lower right). Read more…
Short term QQQQ up-trend in question
The QQQQ is going back and forth over its key 30 day moving average. Time will tell whether this new short term up-trend, now in its 4th day, will hold.
How to use IBD 100 and New America stocks and TC2007 to find potential rocket stocks; Market rally begins
I am writing this post primarily to teach my students how I search for potential rocket stocks–stocks that have been launched and appear headed towards new peaks. As I said in class this week, it makes the most sense to buy stocks that have the best fundamentals and technicals. This strategy has been advocated both by Nicolas Darvas and William O’Neil in their extraordinary books (listed at lower right of this blog). Darvas, made a fortune trading in growth stocks in the late 19050’s and said that he liked to buy stocks that were trading at all-time highs and that had already doubled in the past year. So, I am going to show you how I use the great TC2007 stock charting and analysis program to find potential rocket stocks that I research further before buying. Read more…
Short term down-trend ending?
A rise in the QQQQ on Thursday and Friday will likely turn my trend indicator up. Wednesday was the 18th day of the short term down-trend. However, there were 167 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday, the most since January 21. And 53% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages. With the indexes up against their key moving averages, it remains to be seen whether they will break through this week. With many growth stocks getting stronger, I suspect this market is going higher. The key is to not jump the gun, however, but to wait for confirmation.
Federal Reserve raising short term interest rates? Stocks ready to rally?
While the short term down-trend is still in place, a lot of stocks I watch are gaining strength. And surprisingly, short term rates are starting to rise, perhaps in anticipation of a recovery in the economy. First, note that the GMI-R, which is more sensitive to short term changes, has risen from 1 to 5 (of 10), while the GMI is now back to 2. As the table below shows, Read more…
IBD 100 TOP TEN STOCKS GET TROUNCED IN MARKET DECLINE!
Last October, I wrote a post showing that in the market’s rise, 70% of the top 10 stocks in the IBD 100 list outperformed comparable stock indexes. Well, I repeated the analysis for the top ten stocks in the IBD 100 list published on 01/11/2010. I compared the closing price of each stock on the Friday before Monday’s list was published to the closing price yesterday, on 02/09/2010. I am a big fan in buying IBD 100 stocks in a market up-trend, but was still very surprised by these dramatic results. Read more…
More new lows than highs; T2108 and stochastic in oversold territory
For the first time since early November, there were more new lows than new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. Furthermore, the Worden T2108 indicator is getting near the level (below 20%) where declines sometimes end. Friday was the 11th day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend. We are either at the beginning of a major decline, or near the end of a short term correction. The best course for me is to wait for the market to tip its hand. The GMI remains at Read more…
Short term down-trend continues; AAPL
The GMI remains at 1 (of 6) and the more sensitive GMI-R is 2 (of 10). While many stocks have bounced off of extremely oversold levels, it remains to be seen if they can break through resistance. I am nibbling a little and placing close sell stops below the low of the bounce. I am watching AAPL very closely.
