tree-247122-e1457495787585

Performance of $QQQ during GMI signals; GMI to issue new signals; GLB: $FOXF, $FLT

GMI6
GMI-28
T210850%

Below is a plot of the QQQ during periods when the GMI was on a Sell (red) or Buy (green) signal. Decide for yourself if this signal would have helped you stay out of bad markets, as it did for me. The GMI signals are rather conservative because the GMI tends to turn green well after the bottom of a major decline and a new up-trend has become firmly established. It also tends to turn red well after market tops. Such is the nature of trend following indicators!

gmisignals2006-2016

A plot of the shorter time period, from 2014-2016, shows more clearly that while the GMI is red during longer declines of the QQQ, it has had a number of times when it turned red right at the bottom of a very brief decline. I therefore do not necessarily exit all positions when the GMI flashes a “Sell” signal but look at additional indicators for confirmation. I am therefore changing the GMI signals from Buy/Sell to Green/Red.   Green signifies to me that conditions favor being in stocks, while Red means the opposite and that extreme caution is needed.

gmi2014-2016

Speaking of short declines, the GMI  turned Green at last Thursday’s close after being Red for just 8 days. As noted in the charts above, the GMI turns Red after registering 2 consecutive days below 3 and turns Green after 2 consecutive days above 3.

All of the indicators measured by the GMI and GMI-2 are currently positive. In addition, Friday was the 6th day of the new QQQ short term up-trend, which is assessed differently than the GMI signals. Note that the SPY is still (for 3 weeks) below its critical 10 week average.

gmi09242016

FOXF had a GLB on its highest weekly volume since it came public in 2013. FOXF is being added to an index ETF.

screen-shot-2016-09-25-at-3-18-14-pm

FLT also had a GLB last week.

screen-shot-2016-09-25-at-3-27-48-pm

 

New GLB tracker table shows strong recent break-out stocks; $GIMO retests GLB and soars; Schizoid market

GMI3
GMI-28
T210831%

I updated the GLB Tracker Table. It now shows stocks that evidenced a strong week last week by hitting an all-time high on large volume,  and that had a GLB last week or since 8/29. I could not bring myself to delete CLCD, up 197% since it passed its green line break-out point–a lucky pick! This list does not contain all GLB stocks that occurred during this period. It contains only those that have held their GLB (i.e., successful) and have strong technicals and/or fundamentals. The performance of the stocks in the GLB Tracker Table updates during the trading day. While the table appears daily to the right of this post, I thought it useful to show it below too. These are stocks at or close to their all-time highs that need to be researched before I purchase. One benefit of these stocks is that they are less likely to be extended because they have recently broken out above a prior all-time top and therefore may have been just launched on a new journey upward.

screen-shot-2016-09-17-at-10-46-00-am

If I buy a GLB stock I immediately sell it if it trades back below its green line break-out point–no exceptions. If it then comes back above its  green line on good volume, I might buy it back. This was the situation with GIMO.

screen-shot-2016-09-17-at-11-14-23-am

I find that a daily chart can often lead me to be whipsawed and to sell a good stock too soon. It’s like checking one’s blood pressure or cholesterol too often. Look at how nice GIMO’s post break-out consolidation appears in this weekly chart. Up weeks occurred mostly with higher volume than with down weeks. No reason to sell out early if I had focused on the weekly pattern……..(luckily I bought it back)

screen-shot-2016-09-17-at-11-22-53-am

The GMI remains on a Sell Signal but my QQQ short term trend indicator has just turned up!  There is a huge divergence between the tech stocks, reflected in the QQQ, and in the large cap stocks measured by the SPY and DIA.  Thus the QQQ closed back above its 10 week average while the SPY and DIA remain below their 10 week averages. This is a schizoid market!  Either the QQQ will turn out to lead stocks back to a new up-trend or it will revert to the downward trend of the other indexes. Maybe this will all be resolved after the FED speaks later this week, or after the Presidential election? I am buying break-outs but am very defensive, with small positions and close stops.

gmi09162016

 

 

No tags for this post.