21st day of QQQ short term up-trend; GLD breaks down-trend
The up-trend in the QQQ continues. I have written about the probable down-trend in gold, as measured by its ETF, GLD. However, you can see from this daily chart that GLD broke its down-trend on Wednesday on above average volume. Since I already own an in-the-money put option on GLD, I have purchased 100 shares of GLD, which are now protected by my put option. When I buy an in-the-money put option, and the stock reverses, I can always just buy the shares and keep the put option as insurance against a resumption of the down-trend. If the stock resumes its down-trend I can just sell the shares and retain the put option. Click on this daily chart of GLD to enlarge.
20th day of QQQ short term up-trend; T2108 at 86%, yearly chart shows market extremes
Some QQQ short term up-trends have lasted as long as 80 days. However, one warning sign that this market is getting frothy is that the T2108 is at 86%. While the T2108 indicator can remain at this overbought level for a few weeks, it nevertheless is near the highest level that it reaches. The yearly chart below shows the range of the T2108 since its inception in 1986 by the Worden Group. The red and green horizontal lines show the typical extreme levels that have been reached. In 1987 and 2008 the T2108 reached into rare single digit territory below 5%. At the other extreme, there are a few years when the T2108 has reached close to 93%. The current reading near 86% is therefore relatively rare. I become cautious as the market approaches the red line and wish I had the courage to become bullish when it reaches the green line. The trouble is that when the T2108 approaches single digits, the news is terrible and the markets are in a panic phase. If I follow the GMI and am in cash, it is easier, but not easy, to buy when the market is extremely oversold. By the way, the T2108 measures the percentage of NYSE stocks that closed above their simple average of their closes of the past 40 days. T2108 is updated each day as part of the Worden charting program. Click on chart to enlarge. To me, the T2108 is an excellent pendulum of market sentiment.
19th day of QQQ short term up-trend; GLD at resistance
GMI remains at 6. Is it time to call this a resumption of the bull market?! This daily chart of GLD suggests that gold is at resistance. Will it resume its down-trend or break through?
18th day of QQQ short term up-trend; RWB stock: TCO
GMI remains at 6 but T2108 is in overbought territory, at 84%. Fourteen stocks came up on my 52 week high with good earnings scan:
CMG,TCO,WPZ,ASPS,HIBB,SIX,LECO,WYN,PZZA,AIT,CALM,FWRD,SE,INTC
TCO appears to be a RWB stock breaking from a base. Click on chart to enlarge.
17th day of QQQ short term up-trend; GMI buy signal since Dec. 23rd
GMI and GMI-2 remain at 6 (of 6). While the Worden T2108 is high, at 84%, this up-trend still looks strong. I am 100% invested in mutual funds in my university pension. My trading accounts hold long positions. I am gradually accumulating index ETF’s. The GMI buy signal has been in place since December 23rd. Since that day, the QQQ has advanced +6.6%, the QLD is up +13.5% and the TYH is up +19.5%.
QQQ short term up-trend reaches 16th day
With the Worden T2108 at 83% and 95% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closing above their 30 day averages, I am reluctant to take on more long positions now. I am selling calls on long positions and waiting for a drop to support to increase my long positions. Longer term up-trend is up but I suspect we are in for the usual post-earnings release lull.
15th day of QQQ short term up-trend;CLR rocket stock
Stocks are breaking out and showing a lot of strength. Only cloud on the horizon is the T2108, now at 83%, an overbought level where tops tend to occur. Fifteen stocks showed up on my Darvas scan:
VHI,EXXI,AREX,CLR,FICO,AE,TNH,ZOLL,JAZZ,FARO,DXPE,ALXN,URI,WCG,RGR
All but WCG are near all-time highs. They have great technical strength and recent earnings and are up at least 80% from their 52 week lows. This weekly GMMA chart of CLR shows it is breaking from a base to new highs and is an RWB rocket stock. Click on chart to enlarge.
14th day of QQQ short term up-trend
Short and longer term up-trends are in place. Note, however, that the T2108 is pushing 80%.
13th day of QQQ short term up-trend
My indicators remain positive and I am 100% invested in mutual funds in my university pension account. I am gradually accumulating long positions in my trading accounts. 
The GMI is at 5 and and the GMI-2 is at 6 (of 6). The GMI gave a buy signal on December 23rd and is still in place. The following 12 stocks passed my TC2000 scan of hitting new 52 week highs on Friday and having solid fundamentals: SMP,CMG,CCU,RGR,WPZ,RYN,PNRA,FAST,NGLS,M,USB,PETM. All but M and USB are at all-time highs. Some of these may be worth researching.
12th Day of QQQ short term up-trend
T2108 breaks 80%, in overbought territory, and about one half of Nasdaq 100 and Dow 30 stocks have an overbought stochastics reading. Still, the GMI buy signal of 12/23 remains firmly in place. Among the 17 stocks hitting a new high on Thursday and having very good fundamentals are: NEU, ADS, ARG, DCI, PETM, SBUX, HIBB, FAST, FEIC,CRMT, WYN,GNRC. All are at all-time highs.
