IBD100

Jon Stewart: media pundits failed us–but I wrote last June that banks and markets looked sick

@ 11:33 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-R2/10
T210822%

It’s is great that Jon Stewart informed the world last week that the media pundits at CNBC   failed to provide accurate information about the impending financial crisis.   But by using technical analysis, I warned my readers last June what the charts were telling me and transferred my pension money   out of mutual funds to money market funds:

“Look at this weekly chart of   Bank of America (red line= 30week average; click on chart to enlarge). Other bank stocks with similar charts include : WB, UBS, STI, and DB.   When major bank stocks are in a free-fall, can the rest of the market be far behind?” (Posted on June 8, 2008)

The media pundits and the financial advisers are self-serving when they try to convince us that we need their wise counsel.   I say that one can rely on the market itself to alert us to danger. I use the TC2007 charting program to analyze the market trend and post my conclusions on this blog.   I know a lot of you have used my blog to protect yourselves….

Read more

Jim Cramer finds (TA) religion; TSYS: cup with handle breakout? Indexes are weak, but some promising IBD100 stocks appear

@ 9:39 am
GMI1/6
GMI-R4/10
T210840%

I know that the GMI has kept me and, I hope others, out of the long side of this market since at least August 2008, the last time that the GMI was 4.   I prefer the GMI to be at least 4 before I commit many IRA funds, and especially my university pension,   to the long side.   Since the GMI fell below 4 in late August, the QQQQ (Nasdaq100) and SPY(S&P 500) have declined 35%, and the DIA (Dow 30), by 31%.   During that same time period, 95% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks declined, 36% have declined more than 40%.   The biggest losers in the Nasdaq100 component stocks includes such well respected stocks as: RIMM, ISRG, and DELL (each down 63%), and JOYG (-69%)   and WYNN (-72%). As to   the “safe, buy and hold” Dow 30 stocks; 100% declined in this period, with whopping declines in: AXP (-58%), GE (-60%), GM (-75%), AA (-76%), C (-80%) and BAC (-81%).   Do you see why it does not make sense to fight the general market’s trend, as reflected in the GMI!

Speaking of the GMI, the table below shows

Read more

Second day of new QQQQ short term up-trend

@ 11:25 pm
GMI1/6
GMI-R4/10
T210846%

There were 7 new highs and 162 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday.   Only two of the stocks on my IBD100 lists hit a new high on Thursday:   SXCI and HMSY.   But the QQQQ was strong, and now 67% of the Nasdaq100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, the most since January 9th.   The GMI remains at one and the GMI-R at four.   I   do not know how long this up-trend will last but it pays to watch it closely.   I have a very small position in QLD, the Ultra long QQQQ ETF, and will add to it if the trend continues.   If the QQQQ up-trend fails, I will be stopped out with a small loss.   The key is to keep doing this until I catch a real up-trend.   I have learned from other bear market bottoms that when I give up in disgust, I   miss the real turn.