IBD

GMI: 1; GMI-S: 0; Short or in cash

@ 12:01 am

The GMI is still 1 and the GMI-S has returned to zero.  Gmi0313 Only 3-4% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Tuesday.  Only 13% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 46% of this week’s IBD 100 stock list closed above their 30 day averages.  Tuesday was the 11th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.  It remains to be seen whether these declines will surpass the lows of last week.  Right now there is so much technical damage to the indexes that I am either short or in cash. 

See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.

GMI: 1; GMI-S: 25; X and TSO; IBD 100 new highs

@ 12:01 am

The GMI is still 1 and the GMI-S rose to 25.  Still, the trend is down in the major indexes. Gmi0312  Monday was the 10th day in the QQQQ down-trend. In spite of the general market down-trend, two stocks that are bucking this trend are X and TSO, both of which I own.  It remains to be seen how far this bounce will go and I am mainly in cash.  I also own puts on some weak stocks.  The only way to go short in an IRA is through buying put options.

Any stock that could come through the recent market declines and then hit a new 52 week high is showing notable strength.  The following 14 recent IBD 100 list stocks hit a new high on Monday:  JSDA,BTJ,HURN,GLP,DECK,MIDD,TSO,ETP,AVT,BWP,WCG,FDS,SIMO, CCK.  If I were looking for stocks to buy, I would start researching this list.

Blogdisclaimer_17

GMI: 1; GMI-S: 13; IBD 100 stocks not safe either; Cash or short

@ 12:01 am

The GMI is one, and the GMI-S is 13.  Only 14% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages and only 20% are in an up-trend, the lowest percentage since last July.  There were only 45 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, and 60 new lows.  Only 12% of the 369 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher than they did 10 days ago.  This is clearly not the type of market to invest in growth stocks with the hope they will hit new highs.  Gmi0302_1 Both the SPY and QQQQ closed below their 10 week averages.  Only 35% of the stocks in my universe closed above their 10 week averages.  Friday was the 4th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.

The IBD 100 stocks did not offer a refuge from this market decline.  As the accompanying table shows, few of the stocks in the IBD 100 stock  lists I have been following did better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Only 6-15% of the stocks in these lists rose on Friday, compared with 9% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks. Ibdperf0302 There were  a maximum of 4 new highs and only 19-24% of the the stocks in each list closed above their 30 day averages, slightly above the 14% for the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Under 50% of the stocks in the lists published since November closed higher than on the day the list was published.

Buying stocks in the current market down-trend represents to me fighting the odds.  Since about 70% of all stocks go with the market averages, one should be in cash or short.  There is plenty of time to go long once a new up-trend establishes itself.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of yesterday’s post.