Bearish sentiment reaches new low, but my indicators are positive; buy and hold of leveraged ETF’s can work

@ 6:36 pm
GMI6/6
GMI-28/9
T210857%

The Investor’s Intelligence poll of investment advisers reached a new low (at least, according to IBD, in the past 5 years) last week in the percentage who are bearish–14.4%.   Extreme readings like this could imply the market is near a sell-off.   When there are few bears and everyone is bullish, they say, there is no one left to buy.   The bullish percentage, at 55.7% is still not at a historic peak, however.   This means a lot of the polled advisers (about 30%) are neither bullish or bearish. If they convert and the bullish percentage climbs over 60%, I would start to expect a market top….

And the T2108, at 57%, is not at an extreme either.   When more than 80% of the NYSE stocks close above their 40 day average, the T2108 would be at an extreme overbought reading.   With the GMI at 6 (of 6) and the GMI-2 at 8 (of 8) all of my indicators remain positive.   Being a trend follower, I just have to wait for these indicators to turn negative before I totally exit this market in my trading accounts.

GMI11292013

Does buy and hold work?   If one had bought one of these index ETF’s on May 1, 2009 at the beginning of a Stage 2 up-trend, and held through Friday, 11/29/2013, one would have savored the following gains:   QQQ +149%, DIA +96%, SPY +107%.   And now for the leveraged ETF’s, QLD +449%, TQQQ, +408% because it only started trading on 2/16/10!

All those pundits who say say buying and holding a leveraged ETF does not work should look at these statistics.   Yes, I know that in a major bear market these leveraged ETF’s can underperform. But that assumes one has no ability to cut and run when the market turns. And I have the GMI to guide me…….

 

AAPL resumes RWB rocket stock pattern; Useless babble on calling market top/bubble

@ 10:09 am
GMI6/6
GMI-28/9
T210855%

Last March I wrote that AAPL, at $461.91, was looking better because it had crossed back above its critical 10 week average. This GMMA chart shows that AAPL has now resumed an RWB rocket stock pattern.   All of the shorter term averages (red) are now above the longer term averages (blue lines) with white space separating them.

AAPL11282013

AAPL is also firmly in a Weinstein Stage 2 up-trend, back above its rising 30 week average (red line).

AAPLweekly11282013I have made money consistently buying AAPL when it crossed above its 10 week average and selling when it crossed back below. I own AAPL again….

I keep reading articles about an imminent market top or bubble status.   This may sell air-time or ads, but it is nonsense.   No one can reliably predict the end of a market trend, except by luck.   It is a great waste of time and emotional energy to pontificate about this.   Bubbles and tops are only accurately portrayed AFTER they have occurred.   Technical indicators have helped me in the past to get out of the market after the top but before most of the ensuing carnage.   I am therefore concentrating on riding the current up-trend and keeping an eye on the GMI to alert me to potential trouble.   When the GMI, posted to the right,   reaches 0 or 1, I will look for the beginning of a real down-trend.