GMI:+6; GDW; Shame on you, Cramer

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

I was out late tonight and will not write extensively.  Suffice it to say that the GMI held steady at +6, but there were only 265 new highs.Gmi713_2 Only about one half of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stocks rose, compared to 80% of the Dow 30 stocks.  The rally ebbs and flows. Note that GDW, one of the consistent long time winners I have talked about hit a new high today……………… 

Tonight I heard Cramer make the distinction between the short term trader and the investor.  Traders should cut their losses at 8% but investors who know the "true value" of stocks can buy on the way down.  What a prescription for disaster!  No one should average down and no one should let their losses on a purchase exceed 8%.  One could have bought Enron all the way down by being a true believer in the accounting statistics and the repeated optimistic company announcements.  By the time we outsiders learn the facts, the insiders and people in the know have already sold at much higher prices.   No amount of "homework" or research can protect us. That is why one must react to the stock’s behavior as seen in its price chart, not to the corporate propaganda. Shame on you, Cramer.

Send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

Another good day; GMI: +6; Stocks to watch

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

Another good day, but weaker than yesterday.  There were 495 new highs, down from 629.  Only 60% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced, compared to 52% of the S&P 500 and 47% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Gmi712 The GMI remains at +6.  If you look at the chart of the Growth Mutual Fund Index in IBD, you will see that growth mutual funds are doing well now.  The Index is well above its 50 day average, and rising.  84% of the stocks in my universe of 4,000 stocks closed above their 10 week averages and 65% of all of the stocks are in a short term up trend, up from 42% just 6 days ago.  If we can’t generate profits in this market something is wrong with our trading technique…………………………..

Still, there were a few warning signs today.  BOOM could not hold its gains today and NTRI and SHLD also retreated from their highs today.  On the other hand, there was renewed life in CME and NDAQ and LDG today. SWN, BBY, MW and HANS are still consistent climbers.  (I own some of these.) ………………………………..

Send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

A hot market; GMI: +6; more rockets; covered calls on GOOG

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

This is one hot market!  There were 629 new highs (16%) in my universe of 4,000 stocks today.  Gmi711 The GMI remains at +6 and 83% of the stocks closed above their 10 week averages.  I changed the criterion for the 10 day new high index to be positive if there were 100 successful stocks or at least 50% of the stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher today than 10 days ago.  There were only 95 new highs 10 days ago, so the indicator would have had to be negative (less than 100) the way I originally defined the index.  So today, 76/95 stocks or 80% qualified as successful 10 day new highs.  60% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are in a short term up trend and 73% to 78% of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks rose today.   These advancing percentages are lower than yesterday’s, but still very respectable……………………………………………

I received a lot of nice reader feedback today–thank you!!  I will address many of the issues you raised, in coming weeks………………………………………

I found a really neat description of a market scan used by a successful newsletter, Coolcat.  Many of the stocks listed are those I have spotted.  Note this scan for finding great microcaps uses some of the types of technical criteria I (and Nicolas Darvas)  use to define rockets–new highs and huge price appreciation.  As I wrote in my strategy posts on 4/23 and 4/30 (check the archive), to find a stock that will double, find one that has already doubled.

My rocket scan found loads of promising stocks today.  All of these had triple digit earnings increases last quarter and are at new price peaks:  CNXS, LUB, BOOM, NDAQ, TS, NTRI, BMHC,  CPSI, LUFK, HANS, RIV, KOSP, SPTN, RTI, TU, PTRY, SNHY, HOLX, SE, WCG, TUG, PCO, VDSI, BEBE, SMTS.  Check them out.  When I buy strong momentum stocks like this, I make a small pilot buy and put a stop loss order in below support or below a moving average where it has found support.  I then wait to see if it moves up and I slowly add more on the way up, as long as the GMI is strong……………………………..

Ever write a covered call in your IRA account?  Today, I bought 100 shares of GOOG at 295.74.  I then immediately sold a call for someone to buy my 100 shares from me at 300 per share, good through expiration on August 19.  In return for the right to buy my GOOG from me at 300 during this period I was paid 15.80 per share, or $1580.  What this means is that by option expiration in August, if GOOG is selling above $300, the option will be exercised and the stock will be called away from me for $300 per share.  My profit (excluding commissions would be 30,000-29,574= +426 + 1580= $2006 or 7% in about 6 weeks.  I am giving up the right to make anymore than this no matter how much above 300 that GOOG may climb during this period.  On the other hand, if GOOG should decline during this period I would not have a loss until it fell to 279.94 (295.74-15.80).  The option premium of 15.84 per share is mine to keep and protects me from a loss on my purchase down to 279.94.  As long as GOOG closes above 279.94 by the August expiration I will have a profit.  If GOOG closes below $300 in August, the option expires worthless and I can write a new call on the same shares for September or later. If the stock falls a lot more than 15.80, I could have a large loss.

Covered call writing is really a very conservative strategy.  I only sell calls on stocks that I think will rise and which are so volatile that the option premium (amount someone will pay me for the option) is considerable.  I do not want to buy GOOG without the protection of the covered call, so I do not care if the stock goes way above 300 by August.  Check out covered call writing in the CBOE learning center.  Many people of the "buy and hold" mentality could have limited their losses in 2000-2002 if they simply had written calls on their stocks as they declined. If you use a full service broker and s/he did not tell you about covered calls as your portfolio shrunk, you should liquidate your broker instead of your account.

Send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

Pundits blind to market strength; QQQQ vs. Comp; GMI: +6; Stocks I like

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

I watched some of the Cost of Freedom shows on Fox on Saturday and was struck by the focus on terrorism.  Imagine wasting viewers’ time by asking the financial pundits what American policy about terrorism should be! The fact that the market held Thursday and Friday did not garner much attention.  Gmi708 I may be wrong, but the strong market last week after the events in London made me really bullish.  The GMI is even back to +6. The market was very strong on Friday.  There were 151 successful 10 day highs–84% of the 181 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher on Friday than 10 days earlier.  There were a stunning 478 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and only 6 new lows.  More than half (53%) of the 4,000 stocks are in a short term up-trend and 79% of them closed above their 10 week average.  On Friday, 85-93% of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks advanced.  We are now in day 1 (U-1) of an up-trend.  So, why aren’t the media pundits more bullish–it must be a conundrum……………………………

I noticed a divergence between the Nasdaq Composite index and the Nasdaq 100 index, which I have been keying on.  Between 6/2-7/7, the QQQQ (which tracks the Nasdaq 100) declined 4.1%, while the Comp Index declined just 1.0%.  If I had been focusing on the Comp instead of the QQQQ, the GMI would have held up much better and kept me more bullish.  What is the difference between the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) index and the Comp?  The QQQQ tracks "all the stocks in the Nasdaq-100 Index, which consists of the largest nonfinancial securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. "  The stocks that are excluded from the QQQQ must be  outperforming the tech stocks in the QQQQ–that is why the Comp performed better during the decline.  I have therefore been thinking about restructuring the GMI to include/replace the Comp.  Any suggestions?…………………………………….

How long will this rise last?  You know better than to ask– the truth is no one knows.  But I am placing my bets on the long side, in case we have a follow through rally as earnings come out the next few weeks.  I like lots of companies, including MW, BBY, HANS, KOMG, FTO, HITK, IVGN, GME, WFMI, GDW, DSL, NDAQ, NTRI–many of which I own.

I would greatly appreciate some reader reactions.  Is my blog of value to you?  What else would you like me to discuss?  Send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.

A surprising show of strength; GMI: +3; Sectors with many new highs

To my visitors: I am only one trader, not a guru, and not a financial advisor.  I am presenting my own opinions and my own experiences and people are welcome to decide for themselves what, if anything, on this site is of value to them.  Please refer to the additional comments, highlighted in red, at the end of this post.

Who would ever have believed that a market in a confirmed down trend could withstand a terrorist attack and actually hold its own?  Today, 50-56% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes actually advanced, far above yesterday’s performance.  In fact, only 7% of Dow 30 stocks rose on Wednesday, compared to 50% on Thursday.  Gmi707_1 There were 173 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and only 28 new lows.  Yes, we are in day 9 (D-9)  of the QQQQ decline, but 55% of its stocks advanced today.  And 109 of the 186 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher today than they closed 10 days ago.  So there is a lot of strength under the surface………………………………

So where was the strength today?  I looked at the industries represented among the 173 stocks that hit a new high today.   I found that 7 stocks in the apparel industry hit new highs:  ANF,DBRN,SCVL,STGS,CHS,MW,CHRS.  There were 13 stocks in the independent oil and gas sector:  ECA,NXY,UPL,SFY,TLM,PTF,CNQ,SWN, SM,APC,XTXI,DVN,PVX.  Oil and gas equipment services had 11: BHI,NGS,SOSA,PAA,PPX,WMB,TMG,KMP,HOC,TNT,PCZ.  While not as many, the investment brokerage stocks were also strong:  TRAD,SCH,ET,LM,AGE.  It would seem to me that  the sectors that have a lot of new highs on a day like this are sending signals of future strength.  As for me, I added to some of my positions that rose today.  While the markets are in a down trend, it appears that the stocks that will report good earnings will buck the trend, at least until their earnings come out.  If stocks were going to decline more near term, I think the market had the perfect excuse to do so today–and it did not.

Send your feedback and questions to: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

Please remember that the stock market is a risky place, especially now.  I am not providing recommendations for you to follow.  My goal is to share tools and methods that I have used over the past 40 years of trading, so that you may learn from them and adapt them to your trading style and needs.  While I do my best, I do not guarantee the accuracy of any statistics computed or any resources linked to my blog.  Please consult with your financial adviser and a mental health practitioner before you enter the stock market,  and please do not take unaffordable risks in the current market environment.  See the About section for more statements designed to protect you (and me) as you navigate this market. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but I would rather learn from a former winner than a loser.