GMI remains at 6; short and longer term trends remain up; ONVO roller-coaster

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ONVO, a highly speculative one of “Judy’s Picks, ” has been on a roller coaster the past two weeks. This article provides more information about why this company is so interesting.   I am holding some ONVO long term just in case the firm’s bio-printing business becomes profitable.   The two other major 3D printing companies, DDD and SSYS, have been or quite a run….

The GMI has been at 6 (of 6)   for 17 straight days. During this time the SPY has advanced +2.87%, the DIA +3.73% and the QQQ +0.22%.   Clearly, tech stocks as measured by the Nasdaq 100 index, have underperformed during this rally.   This is largely caused by the overweighting of AAPL in this index.   AAPL has declined -17.3% during this same time period. I am a little cautious with the T2108 at 84%.   While T2108 does not stay so high for a long time, the market can continue to climb for some time after the T2108 peaks.   So I am not too concerned yet. However, after earnings come out there will likely be some retracement.   The fact that over 53% of investment advisers are bullish and only 22% are bearish is another concern that this rally may be getting old.   The Investors Intelligence poll is a trusted contrary indicator.   When most advisors turn bullish it is nearer to the end of a rise.

 

 

 

 

13th day of QQQ short term up-trend; T2108 reaching extreme

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The GMI (see table below) remains at 6 (of 6) and the markets remain in short and longer term up-trends. When I see so many of the stocks I follow move up together, I become more cautious.   The Worden T2108 Indicator has been tracked by Worden since 1986. ( It can be tracked in the TC2000 software or at Freestockcharts.com, by putting in the symbol, T2108.) The indicator measures the percentage of NYSE stocks that have closed above their average price over the prior 40 days. I have drawn in lines in the chart showing extreme values that the T2108 tends to reach.   The indicator acts as a pendulum of the market.   When the T2108 gets above 80%, the market up-swing is nearing the end and when it falls into single digits, the market is near the end of a major swoon. The monthly chart below shows that the T2108 is now almost 84%, in topping territory.   T2108 rarely reaches 90%. If the indicator rises from here, I will tighten stops and look for a top. When the T2108 is below 10%, the snap back is quick and sudden, but at the other extreme, it takes longer to reverse, so we may have some time to adjust to a top when it comes.