GMI: 0; GMI-R: 0; 16th day of the down-trend; A great new book on the Turtles

Both the GMI and GMI-R remain at zero.  Gmi0128 There were 18 new highs and 45 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  Only two (PRXL, ISYS) of the 509 stocks on the IBD100 lists I tracked the past year hit a new 52 week high on Friday.  Growth stocks are just not climbing to new highs.  There is no reason to be long growth stocks in this market unless I just want to gamble and try to fight the tide.  Friday was the 16th day (D-16) of the current QQQQ short term down-trend.  While my most sensitive daily indicators are off of the extreme low values they hit early last week, none of my indicators have turned positive. Trend followers catch the up-trend after it has developed.  I am content to wait for a true bottom and a subsequent up-turn before I wade back into this market.  Many of the bear markets I have witnessed back to the 70’s continued for nine months or more.  We are only a little more than two months into the current decline…….

Over the past 40 years, I have rarely found a book on trading that made a significant difference to my approach to trading.  I have listed those few books to the lower right of this page. (I earn no money off of any sales of the books I mention and receive no income from this blog.)   Well, I recently read a book that I will list with the others.  Michael Covel’s new book, "The Complete Turtle Trader," is a masterpiece in describing the trading philosophy and rules used to train the famous Turtles, who learned how to make millions trading, in a two week course taught to them by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt in the 80’s.  The most important thing I learned from this book was the mentors’ primary emphasis on exits from a trade rather than entry.  Dennis is quoted as basically saying one might profit by selecting positions by trial and error as long as one had a good exit strategy.  Go into every trade as if you will lose money and you will be prepared in advance for that possibility and limit your losses. Don’t take my word for this, read the book.  The turtles used an extremely systematic and innovative set of rules to trade futures, which I think can be adapted for trading equities.  This is a good time to be out of the market, to analyze one’s prior trading performance and to, perhaps, read a great book….

Newdisclaimer

GMI: 0; GMI-R: 0; only 34 new lows; 15th day of QQQQ down-trend

My GMI indicators remain at zero, but there were only 34 new lows and 15 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday.  This was the smallest number of new lows since December 10. Thursday was the 15th day in the current QQQQ short term down-trend.  The Worden T2108 is back to 26%, up from a low of 18% on Tuesday.  While there is some improvement in my indicators from extremely low levels, it is too soon to determine whether a permanent bottom is in.  The trend is still down.  My best course is to remain on the sideline, mainly in cash. 

GMI:0; GMI-R: 0; patiently in cash

After seeing the major indexes the past few days, how can anyone believe that the stock market provides a rational and efficient process for valuing companies?  Psychology, not economics, is clearly the largest factor determining stock prices.  These large price swings are spawned  by fear and greed and it is too risky at this time to put one’s savings into this market . When the GMI (currently 0 out of 6) rises to 3 or more and the trend of the market is clearly up, I will consider re-entering this market.  It is relatively easy to make money buying stocks during a nice up-trend.  No one forces us into the market.  We all (except mutual fund managers) can refuse to play until the conditions we want are present.  Until then, I wait patiently in cash and collect interest.