The market had every excuse to have a big decline Tuesday, but it held well above its lows. The GMI actually increased 1, to +2. This is because there were 116 new yearly highs. There were only 32 successful 10 day highs–stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago and closed higher Tuesday than 10 days earlier. There have therefore been few profitable new high breakouts recently. Between 29%-30% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks advanced Tuesday. This was the eleventh day in the QQQQ decline (D-11)………………..
The new highs list Tuesday was filled with oil and energy related stocks: BTJ, PHX, MDR, CHK, ARD, FTO, GI, IMO, PXD, VLO, TSO, ECA, EIX, DMLP, HOC, BEXP, OII, BR, TXU, SUN, XTO, RRC, PDS, EQT, GRP, TNT, AYE. These account for almost a quarter of all new highs in my universe of 4,000+ stocks. I have been writing that more than 70% of all stocks follow the trend of the market averages. If we want to find those stocks that are rising (counter-trend) in this weak market, it would seem that we must focus our attention on the energy and oil sector. An ETF in the oil sector is OIH………………..
Most of the Dow 30 stocks look technically weak. Two exceptions that I think may be promising include HPQ and MSFT. Yes, MSFT may be finally moving, after 3 years. Did you notice that MSFT (I own some) traded this month higher than it has since early 02? In the first week of August, MSFT had a high volume advance, peaking at 27.94. Since then there has been a rounding consolidation pattern with nicely declining volume and the stock appears to be holding up well the last few difficult days. I would not be surprised to see a rise beginning soon. As long as the consolidation low holds, so will I……………….
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