I urge everyone to check out my modified Guppy chart (F5) to assess their stocks’ short term trends. I would never hold any stock in a daily BWR down-trend, especially near earnings. You can get my 5 major chart patterns, including the modified Guppy chart (F5) by subscribing to Deepvue. Learn how I use these charts by reviewing my recent Money Show presentation.
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I am so sorry for traders that get caught in these down-drafts. Look at what happened to INTC after earnings release tonight. This chart includes the after market decline. Focus on the stock’s behavior to alert you to probable bad or good news.
I announced that I am now working with my prior exceptional student, Richard Moglen, to include my primary charts prebuilt on the TraderLion program, Deepvue. A link to Deepvue appears at the top of this blog. I explained the GLB setup and showed that the likelihood of a GLB being successful was related to the market, measured by my GMI. The result was unexpected. A GMI below 5 was more likely to be successful! In other words, when the market is weak, a stock breaking out of a consolidation to an ATH is showing considerable relative strength. See the chart below. About 60% of the GLBs that occurred when the GMI was 0-4 were successful, compared to about 40% when the GMI=5 or 6. One must always sell a GLB if the stock closes back below the green line. Deepvue will automatically draw in the green line. I will repeat this preliminary analysis after I gain more GLBs.
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Here are answers to the questions raised by attendees:
WHAT STAGE 2ND 3RD 4TH STAGE BASE DO MOST GLB OCCUR?
A GLB will likely occur in Stage 2 and when the modified Guppy chart (F5) is in a RWB up-trend. I prefer a GLB over $30 where the stock is at least 2x its yearly low.
2.What fundamental analysis do you do to determine what ATH’s to choose?
I actually think that an above average volume GLB may be sufficient reason to buy a stock. Someone must know that something is good or is going to happen. However, I always ask AI to evaluate the stock and list the pros and cons. If the stock has growing revenue or earnings I might be more interested in it.
Can we get a copy of your slides? I missed one.
When I release the session recording when I receive it next week, you can view or screen shot my slides.
4. What is your sell rule(s) after a stock has made a good run of profits?
That is a great question that is difficult to answer for everyone. Some people sell 1/2 of their position after a good profit and raise their sell stop to break even on the rest. I tend to look at the weekly chart and see if the stock breaks below a moving average that generally supports it. A close below the 4 wk avg may be the first sign of weakness and a close below the 10 week would get me out.
Dr. Wish what is your TC2000 formula for ATH?
You have to use the built in condition, price new high. This is how I do it along with some other filters.
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Do you have an AI script to share with us?
I do not understand the question. I merely ask ChatGPT to evaluate a stock.
Thank you to all who attended. Watch here for the link to the recording.