QQQ must hold its 30 week average or is at risk of starting a Stage 4 down-trend. See my recent October 20 Money Show presentation here or on the webinars tab on this blog. Also get the discount for Deepvue and receive my “F” charts.
Day 6 of $QQQ short term down-trend; I hope you were in cash; Very mixed market, T2108 rises to 41% and there were 164 US yearly highs and 51 ATHs, the most since mid-August. 10 of the ATHs were in insurance and 9 were banks; MA and V keep hitting ATHs. Tech stocks, though, are being bludgeoned. Thus, SPY is holding up bettter now. My MoneyShow presentation about GLBs is now available, see the tab at the top of my blog page for a discount to get Deepvue and my “F” charts.
You can see my MoneyShow presentation here. I explain GLBs, blue dot signals and Guppy charts.
The GMI=1, only because there were more than 100 new highs. Compare the modified Guppy charts for QQQ and SPY.
Day 4 of $QQQ short term down-trend. Note T2108 is rising, now= 35%. I presented online at the MoneyShow this afternoon and will make the recording available when I receive it next week. I am answering here the questions I did not get to below. Also, see link to Deepvue on top of this blog post.
I announced that I am now working with my prior exceptional student, Richard Moglen, to include my primary charts prebuilt on the TraderLion program, Deepvue. A link to Deepvue appears at the top of this blog. I explained the GLB setup and showed that the likelihood of a GLB being successful was related to the market, measured by my GMI. The result was unexpected. A GMI below 5 was more likely to be successful! In other words, when the market is weak, a stock breaking out of a consolidation to an ATH is showing considerable relative strength. See the chart below. About 60% of the GLBs that occurred when the GMI was 0-4 were successful, compared to about 40% when the GMI=5 or 6. One must always sell a GLB if the stock closes back below the green line. Deepvue will automatically draw in the green line. I will repeat this preliminary analysis after I gain more GLBs.
Here are answers to the questions raised by attendees:
- WHAT STAGE 2ND 3RD 4TH STAGE BASE DO MOST GLB OCCUR?
A GLB will likely occur in Stage 2 and when the modified Guppy chart (F5) is in a RWB up-trend. I prefer a GLB over $30 where the stock is at least 2x its yearly low.
2.What fundamental analysis do you do to determine what ATH’s to choose?
I actually think that an above average volume GLB may be sufficient reason to buy a stock. Someone must know that something is good or is going to happen. However, I always ask AI to evaluate the stock and list the pros and cons. If the stock has growing revenue or earnings I might be more interested in it.
- Can we get a copy of your slides? I missed one.
When I release the session recording when I receive it next week, you can view or screen shot my slides.
4. What is your sell rule(s) after a stock has made a good run of profits?
That is a great question that is difficult to answer for everyone. Some people sell 1/2 of their position after a good profit and raise their sell stop to break even on the rest. I tend to look at the weekly chart and see if the stock breaks below a moving average that generally supports it. A close below the 4 wk avg may be the first sign of weakness and a close below the 10 week would get me out.
- Dr. Wish what is your TC2000 formula for ATH?
You have to use the built in condition, price new high. This is how I do it along with some other filters.
- Do you have an AI script to share with us?
I do not understand the question. I merely ask ChatGPT to evaluate a stock.
Thank you to all who attended. Watch here for the link to the recording.