IBD

The GMI rose to +5, and the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks strengthened.  Even the QQQQ looks like it may fall into place, although it is still in the thirteenth day of a short term down trend (D-13).  There were 359 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  85% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Wednesday, along with 79% of the S&P 500 stocks and 73% of the Dow 30 stocks.  43% of stocks are in a short term up trend, up from 29% a week ago.  And 70% of stocks closed above their 10 week averages.  All indicators increased and 32% of stocks are now within 5% of their 52 week highs….

I attended our local IBD Meetup tonight.  It struck me that this is the rally that people love to hate.  Why do we appear to distrust this up trend in the large cap stocks, as measured by the Dow 30 and the S&P 500?  Maybe this rally has further to go.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI feel to +4, with only 74 (44%) successful 10 day new highs.  Stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago are unlikely to have closed Tuesday above where they closed 10 days earlier.  The QQQQ is looking very weak.  Only 15% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Tuesday, along with 35% of the S&P 500 stocks and 33% of the Dow 30 stocks.  The QQQQ fell below its 10 day average and all short term indciaotrs are negative. The GMI-S therefore fell to 63%.  The striking divergence between the QQQQ and the otehr indexes will need to be corrected soon.  At some point these market indexes will come into synch with each other.  Time to short the QQQQ?  IBD Meetup tonight.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The market weakened again with the GMI now falling to +2.  I do not have tomorrow’s IBD yet.  If the IBD Mutual Fund Index is below its 50 day average, then we are really at +1.  The GMI-S fell to 19, with the DIA being the strongest of the indexes.  Only 29% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday, along with 34% of the S&P 500 stocks and 40% of the Dow 30 stocks.  HON, HPQ and T are among the strongest Dow stocks.  There were only 87 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and 84 successful 10 day new highs.  Only 31% of stocks are in a short term up trend.  Monday was the seventh day in the QQQQ short term down trend……….

Since its peak on January 10, the QQQQ has declined 5.6% and 60% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined.  During this period the leaders have been crushed.  The biggest declines, in order were:  GOOG (-26%), YHOO (-25%), SNDK (-23%), ISRG (-21%), AAPL (-20%), INTC (-19%), WFMI (-18%), AMZN (-17%).  Most of these stocks are the IBD type of growth stocks that rocketed in a strong market.  The carnage sustained by these stocks does not bode well for the market. The leaders tend to be slaughtered first in a general market decline.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.