IBD

This rally may have legs–IBD100 top ten out-shine again!

@ 7:00 am
GMI4/6
GMI-R8/10
T210875%

When everyone is so bearish and expecting the worst, it is time to expect the opposite.   Last week, the Investor’s Intelligence Survey of letter writers and advisers actually showed more bears than bulls (38% vs. 29%, percents rounded). This is an exceedingly rare phenomenon and should have told us all that the market would rally.   The survey is known as a contrary indicator, when there are many bears, the market goes up, presumably because many persons have already sold or are afraid because stocks have declined. When there are more than 50% bulls, it is time to start looking for a market decline.   I am posting more explanations these days because I have a new class of undergraduate students who are new to these concepts.

Meanwhile, the GMI is 4 (one more flat or up day could turn it to 5) and the more sensitive GMI-R is at 8.   It is now time for me to close out my few short positions and start going long.   There are just too many stocks breaking out.   There were 226 new 52 week highs on Friday in my universe of 4,000 stocks.   This is the most new highs since August 9 (229). While the QQQQ short term trend is still down, by my count, it may end at Friday’s day 16 (D-16) if we have a flat or up day in the index on Tuesday. Both the SPY and DIA have closed above their critical 10 week averages, the level at which I can begin to trade profitably on the long side. 76% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line, a sign of near term strength.   And the Worden T2108 indicator is now at 76%, getting close to overbought territory, but this indicator can remain around 80% for   months.   The T2108 measures the percentage of all NYSE stocks that closed above their 40 day simple moving averages.   It behaves like a pendulum of the market, swinging from overbought to oversold…….

As you know, I think the IBD approach to trading stock is quite effective.   My strategy is to select stocks from the IBD 100 list,     the top 100 stocks that meet the IBD   CAN SLIM criteria.   I then time the entry according to my own trading rules.   The IBD100 list is published every Monday (this week on Tuesday) and is also available on their website for persons who subscribe to the newspaper.   I am always amused how some traders dismiss the IBD100 list as containing stocks that have already passed their time.   They say that when a stock appears on this list, it is too late to buy them.   I think the evidence does not support this assertion.   IBD100 stocks often outperform most other stocks, except during a market decline when these growth stocks can fall more.

From time-to-time, I record the first 10 IBD100 stocks on the list and compare their performance to other stocks.   I did this for the top ten stocks on the list published on Monday, July 12.   The top ten stocks are the first ten listed in the IBD100 table published each Monday, and presumably the most promising. I tracked the change in these ten stocks from the preceding Friday’s close (7/9) through last Friday.   This table (click on to enlarge) shows the extraordinary out-performance of the ten IBD100 stocks. 90% (9/10) of these stocks rose in this period, with 70% rising 20% or more.   In comparison, only 17% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks and 11% of the S&P 500 stocks rose at least 20%.   This performance of the top ten IBD 100 stocks occurred while the QQQQ (NAASDAQ 100 index ETF) advanced   8%. While I do not necessarily concentrate my purchases among the top ten stocks on the IBD100 list, I do tend to concentrate on stocks that have appeared on the list or in the IBD New America daily columns. Almost every Friday,   the New America page lists an archive of the companies written about during the past few months.   I use this archive to update a watch list of promising stocks to follow. The first ten stocks on today’s IBD 100 list (published on Tuesday this week) are, in order:   NFLX, ARUN, BIDU, PCLN, JKS, PPO, MELI, TSL, VIT, FFIV.   I already own some of these. It will be interesting to see how these stocks perform over the next month.

Going long—FFIV and other Darvas Scan stocks

@ 7:00 am
GMI6/6
GMI-R10/10
T210883%

Now that the GMI is 6 and many stocks are hitting new 52 week highs again, I am looking for strong stocks to buy.   As you know, I prefer to buy stocks that have already doubled in the past year and that are trading at or near their all-time highs.   I also want the stock to have appeared on the IBD New America or IBD100 list.   FFIV meets all of these criteria.   It is also a concept stock selection of my talented stock buddy, Judy.   The weekly chart has the technical characteristics I look for, although the stock is extended on a daily basis. Finally, the stock appeared on my Darvas Scan that identifies stocks that have many of the attributes he liked. Below is the monthly chart of FFIV showing that the stock has recently burst through its all-time high reached in late 1999. (Click on chart to enlarge.) I purchased a little of FFIV and will add to it if it keeps rising.   Other stocks that appeared on Wednesday night’s Darvas scan include:   OPEN, APKT, VIT, BIDU, NTAP, ARMH, HWK, GSIT and IDSA.   I own some of these.   Please do not ask me to post my Darvas Scan.   In the future I will post promising stocks that come up in my scans.

Some Stocks Near All-Time highs; Since June 4, IBD100 Stocks 3x more likely to rise 10%+

@ 7:00 am
GMI4/6
GMI-R7/10
T210850%

I often search for new market leaders by scanning stocks that hit new 52 week highs.   This table   (click on to enlarge) shows stocks that hit a new high on Friday,   that are near their all-time highs, and had most recent quarterly earnings increases of   at least +50%.   The first EPS column is the most recent quarter’s earning’s change, followed by the prior quarter’s change, followed by the annual increase in earnings. Next comes P/E ratio, Friday’s close divided by the close one year ago, % change in revenue last quarter, and the P/S (price to sales) ratio.   Of note, all of these stocks had an increase in revenues (sales) last quarter.   As is typical, the majority of these 11 stocks (64%) also have shown up in my past IBD100 or New America stock lists, as shown by the flag (check)   to the left of the symbol.   If this up-trend is for real, some of these stocks may prove to be among the leaders of the new up-trend.   Of course, the next step is to research each stock’s fundamentals and business concept before considering a purchase.

From time to time, I analyze how a recently published IBD100 stock list has performed since its Monday publication.   I examined the list published on Monday,   June 7th and looked at the change in these stocks since their close the preceding Friday (6/4).   From that time through the close on 6/18, I found that 91% of the IBD100 stocks advanced.   The median change was +6.5%, and 21%of the stocks rose 10% or more.   In contrast, during the same period, 90% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks advanced, with a smaller median change of   +4.8%, and with only 8% of the stocks rising 10% or more.   Thus while almost all of the IBD100 and NASDAQ100 stocks rose during this period, the IBD100 stocks were three times more likely to advance 10% or more. In fact, the largest gainer in the NASDAQ100 stocks was WCRX (+13%), while six IBD100 stocks rose from   15% to 24%. These data do not support the often quoted assertion that when a stock appears on the IBD100 list, it is too late to buy. On the other hand, we have shown before that during a market decline, IBD100 type growth stocks tend to fall more quickly than other stocks.

I also looked at the top ten ranked stocks on the IBD100 list published on 6/7. Eight of the ten (80%) have advanced, with the biggest rises occurring in NFLX (+15%),   WPZ (+12%) and DECK (+12%).   The two declines were in DGIT (-<1%) and MED (-4%).   So, some of the top 10 stocks did quite well!

Sometimes it is difficult to grade the components of the GMI.   This week, two of the components received a “?” because they are too close to call.   I therefore kept the total readings the same as Thursday’s, with the GMI at 4 and the GMI-R at 7.   Those of you who prefer a rigid adherence to the criteria can go with readings of   3 and 6, respectively. A strong day on Monday would probably turn the GMI to 5, because we had 99 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.   Friday was the third day (U-3) of the new QQQQ short term up-trend.   Of note, is that the Worden T2108 Indicator is now at 50%, and once the pendulum moves out of oversold territory, it typically goes back to around 80%.   Also, 95% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks have their MACD above its signal line (a positive histogram), a sign of short term strength.   I would feel more confident of this new up-trend if it can reach day 5 and if the QQQQ’ could rise above its 10 week average.   So, I am holding some long positions, and will add to them if the up-trend continues.   At the beginning of a new up-trend, we often are scared to go long because we are driving along, looking through the rear view mirror at the recently ended decline…..