The GMI rose to 3 out of 6 and the GMI-R to 5 out of 10. There were 105 new highs on Tuesday in my universe of 4,000 stocks, the first time there were more than 100 new highs since December 26. 58% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 10 week average. The Worden T2108 indicator is now at 60%. Nevertheless, the QQQQ and SPY have now closed below their 10 week averages for 16 weeks, and these markets remain in a down-trend. However, the short term trend is strong, with the GMI-S at 88%, reflecting that 14 of 16 indicators for four index ETF’s are now positive.
GMI: 2; GMI-R: 3; Signs of life in the bull; IBD 100 new highs
It appears that this market is looking for reasons to rise. The GMI is now at 2 out of 6 and the GMI-R is 3 out of 10. All of my very short term indicators for the SPY, DIA and IJR are positive. Only the QQQQ lags and this is the reason for the low numbers on the GMI and GMI-R which are weighted towards the QQQQ. After a large decline, traders buy the relatively safe large caps and tend to purchase the more speculative stocks later after they have profits and their fear dissipates. There were 80 new highs and 51 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday. More than one half (52%) of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now above their 30 day averages and the Worden T2108 indicator is now at 52%. Many of my other indicators show internal strength in stocks. And many of the stocks I listed in yesterday’s post rose nicely. While the trend remains down, there are signs the bull may be awakening. Thirteen stocks in the current IBD 100 list hit a new high on Monday: SWN, POT, CF, WDC, NGS, FLS, MTL, NEU, GGB, MOS, CMED, RRC and KWK. It is clear that agriculture, oil and commodities remain popular.
GMI: 0; GMI-R: 0; Nibbling a little at rocket stocks
The GMI and GMI-R are still zero. This means that most stocks are in a down-trend. I have therefore been on the sideline for most of the decline. There were 22 new highs and 174 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. The Worden T2108 indicator stands at 41%, in the neutral range. The markets have been in a tight range since the January decline, going back and forth. At the same time, a small group of sectors and stocks have been rocketing up. It seems to me it may be prudent to nibble a little at these strong performers.
I therefore ran a scan using TC2007 to uncover IBD100 stocks that have been incredibly strong throughout the general market’s decline. The following stocks from the IBD100 lists I have monitored over the past year hit a new high during the past week and meet my strict technical criteria for rocket stocks: MOS, MTL, CF, SID, POT, PCLN, CMED, RRC, PRXL, OIL, SWN. While not an IBD100 stock, I also like FDG, which this monthly chart indicates has had a high volume break-out to a new all-time high, breaking its peak from September 2005. In fact, this monthly chart of FDG looks like a three year cup-with-handle formation. My smart stock picker friend, Judy, is interested in RIMM, which just bounced off of its 30 week average. (She, of course, started buying it in the low 80’s!) I may nibble at some of these stocks and place close stops in case they reverse. Many of these stocks have rich premiums on their March call options. I may buy some shares and immediately write March calls.