Dow “bottom rally” puny thus far!; IBD100 and other growth stocks at new highs; I’m bullish for now

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GMI-R7/10
T210884%

A lot of stocks are beginning to look good.   However, there were only 6 new highs and 8 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.   Two of the 6 new highs are stocks on the IBD100 list,   CPSI and TNDM.   TNDM is at an all-time high and both of these stocks came public within the past 8 years, a prime criterion of past winning stocks, according to IBD founder William O’Neil.       I scanned my universe and found 105 stocks that are within 10% of their 52 week highs and that have promising technicals.   Among these stocks that   are on my IBD100 lists from the past year and that also have last quarterly earnings up 50% or more are:   AIPC, GMCR, ALGT, QSII, SXL, JJSF, NFLX and PNRA.   I own some of these stocks…

The GMI remains at 4 and the GMI-R is at 7.   The IBD Mutual Fund Index is above its 50 day average, indicating to me that growth mutual funds are starting to make money. When these fund managers can make money buying growth stocks, so can I. The Worden T 2108 is now at 84%, heading towards overbought territory, but not a concern to me, given that the market is snapping back from very over-sold readings.   Both the QQQQ and SPY have closed above their 10 week averages for several weeks, a key sign of technical strength. While still in longer term down-trends, when these ETF’s are above their 10 week averages, I have usually been able to make money buying stocks.  

Read moreDow “bottom rally” puny thus far!; IBD100 and other growth stocks at new highs; I’m bullish for now

Is the bear market over? Check out my “Guppy” charts

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GMI-R6/10
T210870%

Everyone wants to know if the bottom of this bear market is finally in place. The truth is that only liars and lucky people can really call a bear market bottom close to its occurrence.     I noticed years ago that the pundits on TV usually felt comfortable calling a new bull market about six months after the actual bottom.

The true trend follower rides the current trend until his/her indicators suggest a new trend has begun.   But all trends are not   equal.   Within a longer term down-trend there are short term up-trends.   Currently, we have had a daily up-trend within a weekly and monthly   down-trend. Day traders who monitor trends by the minute or hourly, for example, can trade numerous up and down trends within the longer term trend.

Thus, each person needs to determine his trading time interval when trying to trade trends.   And one can trade different pots of money using different time trends.   So I will not commit my university pension money to the long side of the market when the weekly trend is down.   I stay in cash during such periods. But I may trade with my IRA funds during a daily up-trend that is occurring withing a weekly down-trend.   However, I have had more success trading consistent with the weekly trend and tend to stay mainly in cash even in my IRA during a weekly down-trend.   It is hard to resist buying some recovering stocks during a rally like we have just had, even though my longer term trends are still down.

Read moreIs the bear market over? Check out my “Guppy” charts