I remain almost entirely in cash. Waiting to see where this bounce runs into resistance. Even GS is in a BWR down-trend! I wonder if they are heavily invested in China or oil or just plain equities?
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Market very oversold; $GLD to decline? $AAPL in BWR down-trend
The markets are very short term oversold. There were over 900 new lows on Monday, the most since August 24, the day of the flash crash. About 75% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have a Stochastics below 20 and almost as many reached their lower 15.2 daily Bollinger Band. This is a very oversold market. With earnings season upon us, we are due for a relief rally. I will seek to short the major indexes when this rally loses steam, if one occurs. As this daily chart shows, the QQQ closed at 104.33 on Monday. Possible areas of resistance are around 109 and 112.
I suspect the flight to gold, for safety, may be over for now. GLD is backing down from its upper 15.2 daily Bollinger Band where it was quite overbought.
GLD remains in a multi-year BWR down-trend. See my prior post for an explanation of the BWR pattern.
By the way, AAPL has now formed a BWR down-trend. I wouldn’t go out on a limb for it…..
Market very oversold–bounce coming?
With the put/call ratio at 1.23 and with many stocks at oversold levels, we will likely get a bounce soon. But the major U.S. market indexes remain in Stage IV down-trends. I might consider buying an inverse index ETF or some puts to profit from a further decline, but only after the market bounces and hits resistance. It is nice to be in cash on the sidelines.
By the way, this weekly chart of the Shanghai Composite Index shows it to have now begun a Stage IV down-trend. The best is yet to come….
