While a number of my internal indicators are getting stronger, the market indexes failed to break through important moving averages on Monday. The GMI is at 0, and the GMI-R is at 3. The Worden T2108 Indicator, at 27%, is moving up out of oversold territory. On Tuesday, the averages will likely either break above their key moving averages or resume the decline. Monday was the 28th day of the QQQQ short term down-trend.
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Market still in down-trend; Bear market on the horizon?
The GMI has moved up to 1 (of 6), because the 10 Day Successful New High Index turned positive, and the GMI-R is at 4 (of 10), reflecting the strength in my very short term trend indicators. 
The Worden T2108 is now out of bottom territory, at 25%. The number of NASDAQ 100 stocks with their MACD above its signal line is now up to 70%, indicating short term strength. Still, Friday was the 27th day of the current short term down-trend in the QQQQ (D-27), and the QQQQ and SPY have closed below their key 10 week averages for six weeks. I cannot trade profitably on the long side when the key indexes are below their 10 week averages.
There is a very interesting article in Barron’s online about the strong likelihood we are entering a bear market. When a big publication like Barron’s has the courage to publish such a bearish article, it sometimes serves as a good contrary indicator. So it makes me stop and question whether I should get on the bear bandwagon. Right now it is important to respect the current down-trend and to try not to anticipate a change in trend. When a real change occurs, I will have plenty of time to jump on board. I am therefore content to wait for my indicators to detect any turn. I remain mainly in cash, holding some GLD and a few shorts.
Down-trend still intact; head and shoulder top?
It will take a lot more than a large gain like Thursday’s to create a new up-trend. Thursday was the 26th day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend. Are we forming a right shoulder of a head and shoulder top? Only time will tell.