All Posts

The GMI is holding at 4 and the GMI-R at 7.   I am adding to long positions but will be more confident of the new up-trend if it can reach day 5. I am also keeping an eye on UNG, the natural gas ETF, which may be beginning a Stage 2 up-trend. Note the weekly chart below. (Click on chart to enlarge.) Note that UNG, after a long decline, has just closed above its critical 30 week average (red line).   If this becomes   a true Stage 2 up-trend, there will be plenty of time to climb aboard. I would like to see the 10 week average (dotted line) rise above the 30 week average (red line), before I take on   a large position.

According to my indicators, the market has moved to an up-trend.   The GMI is now 4 and the GMI-R is 7.   Wednesday was the first day of the new QQQQ short term up-trend.   I am slowly adding to my positions   in QLD and other growth stocks. I remain vigilant for any signs that this rally will fail.   The key is to have many small losses and a few large gains.   Anyone who cannot tolerate and take small losses quickly should not be in the stock market.

The GMI is now at 3 and the GMI-R is 6.   As I wrote yesterday, it was possible that the major indexes would turn and break through their key moving averages.   This happened, and if the QQQQ holds on Wednesday, I will start a new short term up-trend count.   I like the QQQQ to stay above its key average for two days before I identify a change in trend.   The fact that the Worden T2108 Indicator is recovering, now at 42%, suggests a meaningful swing to the bull side. 94% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks have their MACD above its signal line, a sign of short term strength.   Many pundits are talking about the possibility that this rise is just   forming   the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top. The fact that many predict this top, makes me more skeptical that it is true.   So I have closed out my shorts and have taken beginning positions in QLD and a few growth stocks.   If this rally continues, I will add to these positions.   If the up-trend fails, I will sell out.