I got back too late from the IBD Meetup to do a full post. The GMI remains at +2 and there were no significant changes in my market indicators. I think we will have to wait until next week when the end of the quarter "window dressing" by the mutual funds is finished. Early October should reveal the market’s direction.
Dr. Wish
GMI holds +2; ISRG and ADSK; IBD Meetup tonight
Not much change in my indicators Tuesday. The GMI remains at +2. Between 40-50% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose. There were only 67 successful 10 day new highs–stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago and closed higher Tuesday than 10 days earlier. Buying new highs has not been a strategy likely to show profits. With only 25% of stocks in a short term up-trend, this is not the time to be positioned long on many stocks.
Nevertheless, I could not resist buying some ADSK and ISRG. Note the above average up volume Tuesday on ISRG as it broke above its 30 day average (red line, click on to enlarge). ISRG looks like it has completed its consolidation after a huge move in July. Both stocks seem to be bouncing from support, probably in anticipation of good 3rd quarter earnings. I bought these and immediately placed stop losses below their moving averages. I am still mostly short and in cash.
Tonight is the monthly IBD meetup and I will be able to assess group sentiment.
Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.
GMI: +2; Last chance to unload positions?; Jim Roger’s bull market
I suspect Monday’s morning rally was a last chance to unwind long positions. Given the internal weakness of the indexes described in my weekend post, this market is likely to be heading lower. The GMI rose to +2, because there were 149 new yearly highs. 60% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks, 47% of the S&P 500 stocks and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks advanced on Monday. The percentage of stocks above their 10 week averages increased to 42%. Monday was day 5 in the current QQQQ down-trend (D-5)…………
Since September 12 when the QQQQ reached a minor peak, 82% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined. During this same period, 82% of the 239 industry group averages tracked by TC2005 also declined. In contrast, the following industry groups have advanced the most in this weak period: Gold (+10.39%), Silver (+8.65%), Copper (+7.63%), Steel and Iron (+7.32%) and Metals and Mining (+5.75%), followed by a host of energy related industries. Jim Rogers was correct when he proclaimed that we are in a major bull market in commodities. Those of us who typically trade the tech growth stocks are probably missing this boat.
Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.