I do not trust a change in the QQQ short term trend count until it reaches the fifth day. Our analyses from 1990-2021 showed that 23% of QQQ short term up-trends lasted 5 days or less, or 77% lasted longer. After 5 days these short term trends tend to last. However, the GMI=4 and if it registers 4 tomorrow it will turn Green.
Can this really be a tradable bottom? No one knows for sure. However, I think most people are betting that the Fed will overly tighten and bring on a recession and the market will go lower. But Mr. Market tends to fool most of the people. So maybe something else is going to happen? Even something better than most think? The key is to sit back and see if the market can establish a real Stage 2 up-trend. For now, I buy a little TQQQ and will slowly accumulate more on the way up. If QQQ falters I will quickly sell.
Meanwhile, look at the 24 stocks in my IBD/MarketSmith watchlist that hit an ATH today and passed my scan. They are presented in descending order of how much they have increased since 250 days ago. Thus, AMR is 7.73 times its price a year ago. Eight of these stocks have already doubled. Remember, the highly successful trader, Nicolas Darvas, liked to buy stocks that have already doubled, as does O’Neil protege, David Ryan. Will any of these stocks prove to be the new market leaders? Stay tuned…….
I saw Former secretary of the Treasury and President Emeritus at Harvard University Larry Summers speak last month at Northwestern University’s Graduate School of Management. Summers indicated that every time unemployment was below 4% and inflation above 4%, a recession followed within two years. He emphasized recession followed every time. He further noted that wage growth is a valuable metric for predicting inflation. Wage growth has been above 9% for the last year. Some say we are already in a recession.