11 thoughts on “55th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; Happy New Year!”

  1. Happy New Year!
    Respectfully.
    I just put in all your Buy and Sell signals going back to 12/28/11 (using the QQQ)
    If one had just held the QQQ from that period, ones return would of been WAY better.
    Jan 2012-Jan 2014
    GMI buy/sell = 34.7%
    HOLD QQQ = 56.31%

    Am I missing something here?

  2. I cannot validate your results. Go to the dark liquidity site and check out the test of the GMI based strategy with the QQQ and QLD for 2012 and 2013. Also, your time period is too small to test the system. The GMI gets one out of the market during a significant decline and avoids the huge associated draw-downs.

  3. Thank you for the reply.
    That’s where I got the signals from – the Dark Liquidity site.
    There they list all the signals going back to Dec 2011.
    If one bought the QQQ on 12/30/2011 @ $55.83 and just held it one would have a gain of 55.19%.
    Does that not beat the GMI?
    I’m just starting to have doubts “timing” works.
    How long of a time period do we need to test the results?
    Should we go back to Jan 2010. If you bought the QQQ then @ $46.50 and held it you’d have nearly a gain of 85% or so. Does the GMI timing signals beat this?
    Can you show us that the timing model beats buy and hold for a particular period?
    I’ve been burned twice in my life (like so many others) by the 2 big down turns in the market over the past 15 years, and that’s why I started to look into timing.
    But unless where talking about one of these HUGE down turns, I’m seriously starting to have doubts that short term “timing” models really work.
    Can you show me otherwise?
    Much appreciated.
    Thanks!

  4. The GMI QQQ strategy pays a cost for getting out when a down-trend may be starting. Only after the year is over can one tell if the down-trend really manifested. In years when the market has had a significant decline, the GMI has helped me to exit and not suffer a major draw down. The DOW came back from the 1929 decline after 26 years. I am not in a position to hold my position in a decline and hope that it comes back. Note that a strategy following the GMI to trade the QLD beat all other strategies that he compared in 2012 and 2013.

  5. Scott – there are many ways to trade/invest, many ways to buy-and-hold, many ways to implement ‘timing’. Ultimately it is a personal decision. I think it’s important to find the right fit with your own personality and financial situation. It’s also important to have realistic expectations – a 36% annual gain is great, and it would be even better using QLD (as Dr. Wish repeatedly mentions).

    Dr. Wish provides a free, transparent, timing signal that can be used to exit and enter the market. That’s it. He doesn’t owe it to you or anyone to prove anything.

    Any trading system (or ‘investing’ system) has drawbacks, and if the market is choppy, or rises continuously with only minor pullbacks, the Wishing Wealth approach will under-perform (as will any trend-following system). The upside is that it will get you out of a major bear market and (importantly) get you back in soon after the bear ends.

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