The GMI is still 6, but I am troubled by a few things. First, there were more new 52 week lows than highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday, 161 vs. 134. The number of new lows was the highest since 163 on August 10, 2006, when the summer market decline bottomed out. The new low list is filled with banks, REITs, builders and financials. During a bull market, stocks like LEH and MER and GS and SCHW should be soaring, not in a free-fall. The Worden T2108 indicator is now at 44, down from a rebound to 55 from 34 about three weeks ago. Finally, weakness in GOOG after its earnings were released on Friday was the first big crack among the market leaders. So, will AAPL when it releases its earnings on Wednesday follow the lead of ISRG and RIMM, or that of GOOG? A collapse in AAPL would signal to me that the up-trend is almost over. Jesse Livermore cautioned that when people stop bidding up the leaders, then they soon stop paying up for the other stocks and the market tops…..
Thus, while the market trend remains up, I am content to stay largely in cash this week; most of my shares were called away on Saturday. There will be plenty of time to take on new covered call positions if stocks hold support this week. I am too cautious to fly mainly on instruments (my indicators) this week and prefer to listen to my nervous gut.
See my disclaimers on a prior post.
The financials have been trending down for weeks. BAC has a long rounding top in place and GS just broke below its 200 DMA on Friday on heavy volume.
Listen to your gut.