Is the bear market over? Check out my “Guppy” charts

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GMI-R6/10
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Everyone wants to know if the bottom of this bear market is finally in place. The truth is that only liars and lucky people can really call a bear market bottom close to its occurrence.     I noticed years ago that the pundits on TV usually felt comfortable calling a new bull market about six months after the actual bottom.

The true trend follower rides the current trend until his/her indicators suggest a new trend has begun.   But all trends are not   equal.   Within a longer term down-trend there are short term up-trends.   Currently, we have had a daily up-trend within a weekly and monthly   down-trend. Day traders who monitor trends by the minute or hourly, for example, can trade numerous up and down trends within the longer term trend.

Thus, each person needs to determine his trading time interval when trying to trade trends.   And one can trade different pots of money using different time trends.   So I will not commit my university pension money to the long side of the market when the weekly trend is down.   I stay in cash during such periods. But I may trade with my IRA funds during a daily up-trend that is occurring withing a weekly down-trend.   However, I have had more success trading consistent with the weekly trend and tend to stay mainly in cash even in my IRA during a weekly down-trend.   It is hard to resist buying some recovering stocks during a rally like we have just had, even though my longer term trends are still down.

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