Wishing Wealth Blog

I finished transferring all of my university pension accounts from mutual funds to money market funds. I know that the put/call ratio and T2108 are at levels where bottoms or bounces have typically occurred. But this time may be different with a pandemic on the horizon. I would rather take the chance of missing a 5-10% rise than experiencing a 20-40% decline. So I am safely in cash on the sidelines. My trading account holds a little UGLD and SQQQ and remains near record levels. The speed of this decline suggests to me that we may be in the early stages of a bear market.

This weekly chart shows that SBUX entered a Weinstein Stage IV decline. Will people go out to buy coffee in a crowd in China?

At 1.12, the put/ call ratio is still not extreme enough for a meaningful bottom. Similarly, the T2108, now at 21, needs to fall to single digits to suggest to me a bottom. The daily RWB up-trends in SPY, DIA and QQQ are over. IBD sees market in correction. I sold some of my university pension mutual funds Tuesday. Perhaps most troubling to me is the fact that DIA is below its 30 week average, solid red line in the weekly chart below. End of Stage II up-trend?