The GMI declined to 5, and the GMI-S fell 25 to 50. Only 7% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 18% of the S&P 500 stocks and 10% of the Dow 30 stocks. Only 14% of the IBD 100 stock list from 12/18 rose and only 49% closed above their price when the list was published on 12/18. Still, there were 253 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The Daily QQQQ Index turned negative again, but its trend is still questionable. The 30 day moving average of the QQQQ is flat and the index is gyrating up and down along this line. The DIA and SPY are also starting to weaken, however. So, this may be the beginning of a meaningful decline in all of these indexes. The QQQQ is back below its 10 week average, a key sign of weakness. We will have to wait a few more days to see if the GMI weakens further. Now is not the time to make large bold bets in either direction.
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GMI: 6; GMI-S: 75; Whipsawed again
The GMI returned to 6 and the GMI-S rose to 75. The QQQQ appears to be starting another up-trend (U-1). It also looks like GOOG may have another earnings related bounce–it reports on 1/31. There were 303 new highs on Wednesday in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 80-90% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose. The 30 day moving average for the QQQQ is flat and when that happens the index often times goes back and forth around its 30 day average. These whipsaw moves are very frustrating and hard to trade profitably. As long as the GMI is above 3, it may be better to stay long in the other ultra long index ETF’s; MVV, SSO and DDM. Their underlying indexes are exhibiting consistent up-trends.
See bottom of my prior post for my disclaimers.
GMI: 5; Day 1 of QQQQ down-trend?
The GMI fell to 5, as the Daily QQQQ Index turned negative. Still, there were 208 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. And the GMI-S rebounded to 63, with strength in the small-cap stocks (IJR). This looks like the first day in a new QQQQ down-trend (D-1), but time will tell.
See my disclaimers at the bottom of today’s post.