Dr. Wish

In a prior post I gave the figure for the length of new down-trends but meant to give the figure for new up-trends. I trust a change in short term trend more once it reaches beyond 5 days. This is especially true for a change to a down-trend, where 39% end within 5 days. I became defensive on February 24 when that short term  up-trend extended beyond the high of 88 days from 2006-2019 shown in this table and the up-trend subsequently ended at a record 91 days.

Weekly RWB chart shows DIA and SPY in longer term BWR down-trend patterns.

Weekly chart shows QQQ still below its critical 30 week average (red line). This is critical level to get through. Note 10 week average (purple dotted line) is crossing below 30 week. A close above both of these averages would indicate to me a likely change in trend. However, prior bear markets have sometimes shown a rebound to the 30 week average and then a failure to hold,  leading to the real major decline.