Dr. Wish

Things held steady with many strong stocks breaking out.  The GMI remains at +6.  46% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Monday, compared with 33-37% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks. Monday was the nineteenth day of the current QQQQ short term up trend (U-19).  There were 174 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, down from 407 on Thursday and Friday.    Still, 40% of stocks are in a short term up-trend and 60% closed above their 10 week averages.  Many stocks are holding up and prior winners are reasserting themselves, like NTRI, NFLX (I own), ACL, LCC, LMIA, OSK…….

Still, I can’t help from being on the defensive when I look at the trend of commodities and the dollar.  The dollar has now convincingly broken below its 30 week moving average (red line) and appears to be in a free-fall.  I do not know what this trend foretells, but I do think it is an ominous sign. Perhaps this weakness in the dollar is behind the rise in gold and suggests that other countries will abandon U.S. currency and our bonds (government debt).  I guess we can live with a return of the dollar to the low levels seen at the end of 2004, can’t we?

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

In spite of all of the problems in the U.S. economy with rising commodity prices, the markets remain in an  up trend.  Only 18% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday along with 42-43% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks.  But there were still 407 yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  63% of stocks closed above their 10 week averages.  The GMI-L remains at 100, indicating that stocks remain in a longer term up trend.  The QQQQ completed its fourth weekly close above its ten week average and Friday was the eighteenth day in the QQQQ short term up-trend (U-18).  It seems to me this up trend in the major market indexes may last until earnings are out.  And then that often under-performing May-October period begins for the market.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI remains at +6.  There were 407 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  49% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 55% of the S&P 500 and 67% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Thursday was the seventeenth day in the current QQQQ short term up trend (U-17).  All indicators seem positive, but I am still skeptical of a continued rise, given the cost of oil and gasoline.  But I guess I have to enjoy this rally as much as I can and not fight it too much……

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.