GMI: 5; GMI-S: 56; Nibbling at QID again

The GMI remains at 5, and the GMI-S rose to 56 because of the strength in the small-cap index ETF (IJR).  Gmi0126_1 There were 115 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  43% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 49% of the S&P 500 stocks but only 27% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 42% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, down from 77% on January 12. Friday was the 2nd day in the QQQQ down-trend.  With the leaders, RIMM and AAPL, looking weak and toppy, this market may be getting ready to roll over. I am beginning to nibble again on the inverse ultra short QQQQ ETF, QID.

Please note my disclaimers at the end of my prior post. 

GMI: 5; GMI-S: 50; Scary market

The GMI declined to 5, and the GMI-S fell 25 to 50.  Only 7% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 18% of the S&P 500 stocks and 10% of the Dow 30 stocks. Gmi0125_2 Only 14% of the IBD 100 stock list from 12/18 rose and only 49% closed above their price when the list was published on 12/18.  Still, there were 253 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The Daily QQQQ Index turned negative again, but its trend is still questionable.  The 30 day moving average of the QQQQ is flat and the index is gyrating up and down along this line.  The DIA and SPY are also starting to weaken, however. So, this may be the beginning of  a meaningful decline in all of these indexes.  The QQQQ is back below its 10 week average, a key sign of weakness.  We will have to wait a few more days to see if the GMI weakens further.  Now is not the time to make large bold bets in either direction.

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