GMI: 5; GMI-S: 69; Worden Indicator T2108: 60%; Sell in May?

The GMI fell to 5, as only 47% of the stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher today than they did ten days ago.  Gmi0515 The GMI-S also fell to 69, with weakness in short term indicators for all but the DIA.  In addition, the Worden Indicator of the percentage of stocks above their 40 day averages has now declined t0 60% after hitting a toppy 80.62% in mid-April.  It is not too late for the "sell in May" crowd to be right.  A top in May is still possible…….

Blogdisclaimer

GMI: 6; IBD 100 stocks outperform

The GMI is still 6.  Gmi0504 The QQQQ is in the 23rd day of an up-trend.  There were 359 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The QQQQ and SPY have closed above their 10 week averages for five weeks.  The Worden indicator is at 75%, still quite high and back down from over 80% in the past two weeks.

The IBD 100 stocks are doing quite well, especially compared with th Nasdaq 100 stocks. Ibdperf0504 It is important to ride the trend and to not anticipate a top.  There will be plenty of time to consider going short or to cash once the GMI falls below 4.

See my disclaimers on my prior post. 

GMI: 6; Ultra index ETF’s gain 7-10%; Worden indicator T2108

The GMI remains at the maximum of 6. I do not   post daily to this blog anymore, but plan to post any day that the GMI changes.   The GMI has been 5 or 6 since the close on March 21. Gmii0427 In that time, the QQQQ has increased   +5.2%, the SPY is up +4.35% and the DIA is up +5.6%.   If we had simply bought and held the ultra ETF’s on these indexes during this period we would have made 9.35% (QLD), 7.73% (SSO) or 10.08% (DDM).   For me, this is the preferred way to trade with minimum stress. So, why did I miss this trade?   Simply because I ignored my instruments (the GMI) and was afraid to follow them after the February decline……

I have added an indicator to the GMI table.   The Worden indicator T2108, that is available on TC2007, calculates the percentage of all stocks that closed above their 40 day moving average. This indicator acts like a pendulum that can reflect the market extremes. Readings above 80% often occur near market tops and bottoms often occur when the index is below 25.   No indicator is infallible, but I think this indicator provides an idea of when the market is at extreme.   Last week this indicator hit a high of 80.62% and closed at 76.64%. It seems to me we are much closer to a market top than to a bottom, but the GMI is still 6…..