The indexes held on Wednesday and the short term up-trend looks robust. The 30 day average has turned up for the major indexes, a very positive sign. Since the first day of this up-trend on June 18, the QQQ has advanced only +1.3%, and the QLD has advanced +2.1%. Thus the indexes have not climbed much. However, it looks like these index ETF’s are starting to accelerate. I am adding to my position in QLD. A lot of stocks are breaking out of bases. Check out this monthly chart of VMI, which has broken to an all-time high from a multi-year base. They have an earnings call scheduled for next week.
GLD looks ready to make a move upward. Its at the end of a flag pattern. Need to keep a close eye on it.
Wondering if the rally has legs. Daily MACD is showing a strong negative divergence for indexes. Also, t2108 is showing a negative divergence. In addition, TLT or dollar is not showing a corresponding decline. Defensive sectors have been holding their ground. I would at least wait for a pullback before getting in as the market has gone up for the last 3-4 days.
As to the earnings, for most of the earnings expectations have been lowered for past several weeks so it is not a surprise that companies beat expectations. This game has been played on wall street for many years.