GMI: +2; GMI-S: 44; Cash and short

The GMI remains at +2.  While few stocks rose on Wednesday (18% of the Nasdaq 100, 17% of the S&P 500 and 7%of the Dow 30 stocks), my market readings are not as low as they were in June.  There were 127 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday, compared with 292 on June 13 and 173 on June 28.  Gmi0712_1 The short term indicators measured by the GMI-S has now fallen to 44; the GMI-L is 31.   14% of stocks are within 5% of a new low and 12% are within 5% of a new high.  Wednesday was the fifth day of the QQQQ down-trend (D-5) and the QQQQ has been below its 10 week average for nine weeks.  I have found that I profit from owning growth stocks when the QQQQ remains above its 10 week average.  In my opinion, anyone holding stocks in the current market should examine their strategy.  The markets of 2000-2002 should have taught everyone the folly of a buy and hold strategy.  Only 28% of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 and 33% of the 4,000 stocks in my universe closed higher on Wednesday than they did on 5/15.  Since mid-May, the odds of success have been on the side of those who are in cash or short.  That is the side I am on.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +2; Weakness continues; in puts or cash

The GMI is still at +2 as my internal indicators, especially for tech stocks,  continued to weaken on Monday.  Gmi0710 Only 26% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced, compared with 61% of the S&P 500 stocks and 63% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were only 67 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and only one new high (PMTI) in the IBD 100 list from 5/15.  Since the IBD 100 list was posted on 5/15, 25% of those stocks have advanced, compared with 35% of the stocks in my universe.  With odds  like these it makes no sense to chase the IBD type of growth stocks, unless one is partial to casino action that favors the house.  The key to survival in the market is to play only when the odds are in one’s favor.  In this environment my IRA remains short with put options or in cash.  There will be plenty of time to jump upon this train when it finally sets a northerly course.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +2; Holding cash

The GMI is +2 and we are in the second day (D-2) of the new QQQQ down-trend. I will wait to commit funds Gmi0707 until after earnings season.  Since 5/15, only 27% of the IBD 100 stocks listed on that date and 34% of my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks have advanced at all.  With odds like these I should only be short or in cash.  My scan of the market yielded 16 rocket stocks and 384 submarines.  Only 2 IBD 100 stocks (PMTI, CME) from the list on 5/15 hit a new high on Friday.  It would be insane to chase growth stocks and anticipate new highs in this market.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.