GMI: 0; Indicators deteriorate; On biased market indexes

The GMI is still zero, as the markets weakened a lot more than was reflected in the major indexes. 50-54% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and D0w 30 indexes advanced on Monday, but only 36% of my universe of 4,000 stocks rose, along with just 23% of the stocks in the IBD 100 list on 5/15.  Thus, it was the large cap stocks reflected in the big indexes that were most likely to rise on Monday.    There were only 16 new highs and 195 new lows in my universe of stocks.  Gmi0717 Only 19% of the 132 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher on Monday than they closed 10 days ago.  Buying stocks at new highs has not been profitable.  Tuesday was the eighth day (D-8) in the current QQQQ decline.  I would have expected a much larger rebound after the considerable declines of last week……

The deterioration in many of my indicators is evident in the chart of the performance of my universe of 4,000 stocks versus the IBD 100 stocks of 5/15.  Ibd0717 Only 23% of my universe and 29% of the IBD 100 stocks of 5/15 remain in a short term up-trend.  Only 18% of the IBD 100 stocks of 5/15 are above their 10 week averages and only 14% (14/100) of them closed higher on Monday than they closed on the day this list of the IBD 100 was published on 5/15.  More telling, 48% of the IBD 100 stocks posted on 5/15 are down 15% or more from the day that list was posted on 5/15……..

My intent is not to question the value of the IBD 100 list in bull markets.  IBD 100 type growth stocks tend to do very well in rising markets. However, I am trying to protect my readers from impulsively buying the IBD 100 list growth stocks when they are listed in weak markets.  IBD itself cautions readers to buy these stocks only in a rising market and after careful analysis.  In addition, I want my readers to know that IBD’s practice of replacing underperforming stocks in the IBD 100 index with better performing stocks obscures the performance of any complete list of stocks they publish.  That is why I arbitrarily selected  the IBD 100 stock list published on 5/15 and track its performance. Anyone who bought stocks on that list on 5/15 and held them had a 14/100 chance of having a winner, through yesterday’s close. In a few months I will select a new IBD 100 list to track.

IBD is not alone in replacing underperforming stocks in an index.  All of the major indexes follow the same practice, thus providing the brokerage industry with a very misleading tool for convincing  investors of the  wisdom of buying and holding stocks for the long term.  (For example, only one original Dow Industrial stock, GE, remains in that index.)  Anyone who bought and held the stocks that have been dropped from these indexes might have seriously harmed their financial health, and wealth. Statistics based on the performance of these "corrected" indexes are therefore heavily biased towards gains and do not accurately represent the risk of holding stocks over time…….

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: 0; IBD100 performance; Cash balances earning 4.8%?

The GMI is still at zero.  There were 300 new lows and just 16 new highs on Friday.  The last time we had more than 300 new lows (324) in my universe of 4,000 stocks was October 12, at a near term bottom.  However, many of my indicators, while low, are not at extreme lows.  For example, 14% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day average, compared with 9% on June 13.  Gmi0714 The GMI-S is now at 19, reflecting weakness in almost all of my short term indicators for the four major stock indexes.  The GMI-L is only a little better, at 31. 21-27% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Friday. Friday was the seventh day (D-7) in the current QQQQ down-trend and the ninth week that the QQQQ has closed below its 10 week average.  The IBD mutual fund index is below both its 50 day and 200 day moving averages and the 50 day is close to crossing below the 200 day.  Thus, the professional growth fund managers are suffering in this market, another indication to stay away from growth stocks now.

The IBD 100 stocks continue to be slaughtered.  Ibd0714 I think that the way IBD tracks  the performance of the IBD 100 is very misleading because they keep replacing underperforming stocks with better performing stocks.  When you look at the performance of the IBD 100 list published on a  particular date (5/15) we get a more accurate indication of how these types of stocks have performed.  Since 5/15, only 19% of the IBD 100 stocks have advanced, compared with 27% of the 4,000 stocks in my universe.  Only 26-27% of the stocks in each group closed above their 10 week averages.  None of the IBD 100 stocks and less than 1% of my universe of stocks hit a new high on Friday.  Need any more evidence that growth stocks have been a dismal investment since mid-May?

I am  100% in cash now, given my coming vacation.  Since mid-May it has  been almost too easy to trade profitably on the short side.  Buying deep in the money puts in my IRA has been a wonderful strategy for this market.  I urge all readers to get a copy of O’Neil’s book on shorting and to study the charts.  A current scan of the market using TC2005 yields 7 rocket stocks and 422 submarines.  Riding submarines down or staying in cash has been the best way for me to ride out the current market.  With Fidelity Cash Reserves paying me about 4.8% for the cash balance in my account, it is nice to be on the sidelines.  What is your brokerage firm paying you for your cash balances? You may be surprised/disappointed……….

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: 0; In cash or short

The GMI returned to zero on Thursday.  Between 10-16% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced.  Only 13% of my universe of 4,000 stocks advanced, as did only 9% of the IBD 100 stocks listed on 5/15.  Gmi0713 There were 24 new highs in my stock universe and 249 new lows.  On June 13 there were 13 new highs and 292 new lows, so we are approaching the depths of the decline in mid-June.  18% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages. Put another way, only 18 of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their average closing price over the past 30 days.  Only 29% of my universe of stocks are in a bullish Stage 2 up-trend, as defined by Stan Weinstein (see his book, listed on the right). 17% of my universe of stocks are within 5% of a new low, while just 9% are that close to a new high.  Approximately 3 of every 4 stocks closed on Thursday below the price they closed on 5/15…….

With the GMI at zero, I hold no stocks in any account.  There will be plenty of time to buy stocks again after the inevitable real turn occurs, sometime in ………………………

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.