IBD

The GMI is still 6. But only 25-35% of the stocks in the  Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Friday.  There were 238 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Friday was the 74th day of the current QQQQ up-trend.  While the GMI remains at 6, I am concerned by the weakening in the GMI-S indicators. For the first time since this up-trend began, the QQQQ has closed 5 consecutive days below its 10 day average, which itself is curving down.  The leaders are also weakening.  GOOG closed below its 30 day average for the first time since last August.  (I had already sold my GOOG.)  AAPL has also stalled for now, although it remains in an up-trend. I therefore lightened up a little on the QLD and bought some QID.  I am hedged a little on the direction of the QQQQ and will wait to see which trend unfolds.

The IBD  100 stocks have been holding up okay.  The best list in this table, the one from 11/20, had 13 new highs on Friday, compared with the Nasdaq 100 stocks that had only 2 new highs.  Note, however, that only 53% of the IBD 100 stocks from 11/20 closed higher on Friday than they did on 11/20.  Still, 77% closed above their average price for the past 30 days, compared with 58% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.

The GMI is back to 6.  76% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Wednesday, along with 82% of the S&P 500 stocks and 83% of the Dow 30 stocks.   There were 238 new yearly highs in my  universe of 4,000 stocks.  Wednesday was the 72nd day of the current QQQQ up-trend.  One thing I noticed today in IBD bothers me a lot about this market.  The Investors Intelligence poll shows 57.5% of investment advisors bullish and only 22.3% bearish.  Such extreme bullishness is typical of markets that are topping out…

The GMI fell one, to 5 and the GMI-S fell to 50, down 50.   My short term indicators for all four indexes, especially the DIA, weakened Monday.  Still, there were 117 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  But only 6% of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 stocks advanced on Monday, along with 10% of the Dow 30 stocks.  The last time we saw single digit advances in these three indexes was last June 5 (6%, 5%, 3%, respectively) , in the early stages of the decline that ended on July 18. Monday was the 70th day in the current QQQQ up-trend, which remains intact.

The IBD 100 stocks have not done much better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks recently.  Only 7-14% of the IBD 100 stocks in the five lists that I have been following advanced on Monday, compared with 6% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  But only 39% of the IBD 100 stocks from 11/20 closed higher than they did on the day the list was published.  Still, 80% of those stocks closed above their 30 day averages, better than the 60% of Nasdaq 100 stocks that did so.  Note how few stocks in these lists hit new yearly highs on Monday.  Growth stocks have stalled for now.