IBD

The GMI is back to 6, as the QQQQ turned positive.  64% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 59% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Friday was day one (U-1) of the new QQQQ short term up-trend.  Note, however, that the 10, 30 and 50 day averages of the QQQQ are flat and fairly similar,  indicating little movement in this index over the past 50 days. The QQQQ has closed back above its 10 week average, a positive sign.  However, by focusing solely on the QQQQ, I ignored the terrific performance of the SPY and DIA.  The SPY and DIA have closed above their 10 week averages for 24 consecutive weeks!  During this clear up-trend the Proshares ultra ETF’s have zoomed:  Spy, +11% (SSO, +22%) and DIA, +11.5% (DDM, +23%).  While I made money holding the Ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD, during much of this same period, I exited it in late December when the QQQQ closed below its 10 week average.  The QQQQ has been relatively flat since late November.  So, during most of this entire period the GMI held at 5 or above, and I should have been trading the SPY or DIA ultra ETF’s, which never weakened……….

I have added today’s new IBD 100 list to my performance table. Clearly, the IBD 100 lists have been doing better lately.  The majority of the stocks in all but one of the seven lists rose on Friday.  With the exception of the list published on 5/16, the majority of all stocks in these lists closed Friday above where they closed when their respective list was published. About two thirds or more of the stocks on each list closed above their average price of the past 30 days.  The new list, of course, has done best, with 35 new highs on Friday and 93% of its stocks above their 30 day averages.  This outperformance of the newest list is expected, because IBD adds only the strongest stocks to each new list.  Keep in mind, though, that each new list also deletes underperforming stocks and that the overall performance of each list should therefore outperform the general market indexes, which only rarely delete underperforming stocks. Thus, only 6 of the Nasdaq 100 index stocks hit new highs on Friday and only 62% closed above their 30 day averages.  For now, it looks like the IBD 100 type of fast growing companies is doing well….

I noticed this weekend that RATE may be setting up a cup with handle pattern.  A break out above the handle at around 42 on above average volume might signal the beginning of a new move.  I have learned some painful lessons, however, not to anticipate break-outs.  I can always set an alert to notify me if the stock closes above 41.91 so that I can verify the necessary increased volume. ATHR, the other cup with handle possibility I wrote about, is still setting up.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

The GMI is back to 6, but be careful.  Only 18% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 37% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks.  There were 182 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  And Thursday was the 7th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.  But when IBM, MER and AAPL announce good earnings and their stocks weaken, it is an ominous sign.  The GMI-S fell 19, to 69.  None of my 4 short term indicators for the small cap stocks (IJR) are positive.  The IBD 100 type of growth stocks are also underperforming; only 13% of the list from 12/18 rose on Thursday and only 42% closed above their price on 12/18.

I was stopped out of QLD and ATHR today.  I will consider buying the ultra inverse ETF for shorting the QQQQ (QID) if the GMI weakens.  Right now this market looks sick, although the trend has not turned down yet.  See my disclaimers on my prior post.