GMI: 4; GMI-R: 8; GMI performance; Judy’s pick: CYTR

The GMI fell one, to 4, as my 10 Day Successful New High Index turned negative–barely. (Click on Table to enlarge.) Gmi1026  This index measures the number of stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago that closed higher than they did 10 days earlier.  (In a strong market, stocks should rise after hitting new highs.) The GMI-R also fell one, to 80% for the same reason.  If the SPY holds its own on Monday, the Daily SPY Index will turn positive.  The QQQQ is in the 41st day of its short term up-trend and the QQQQ and SPY have closed above their 10 week averages for 7 weeks.  (I typically make money trading growth stocks when the QQQQ is consistently above its 10 week average.) The longer term trends are strong, with the GMI-L now at 94%.  The Worden T2108 indicator is now back to 55%, up from its recent low of 44%….

The GMI continues to do its job of defining the QQQQ trend.  I will trade long  in the market as long as the GMI is greater than 2.  Gmiperf1026 (Click on chart to enlarge.)   I continually have to learn the lesson that if I would just ride the QQQQ up-trend by holding the Pro Shares Ultra-QQQQ ETF, QLD (the QLD aims to rise or fall twice as much as the QQQQ), I can virtually outperform every other strategy I am likely to pursue.  Thus, since the GMI turned 3, on August 31, the QQQQ has risen 10.35% and the QLD by 20.07%.  How many of us have had their portfolio rise more than 20% in this time period, with a single trade?  Since August 31, only 19% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 7% of the S&P500 stocks have risen more than 20%, along with 34%of the stocks on the IBD100 list published on August 18.  We would have had to have been pretty lucky to select an entire portfolio of individual stocks that would have outperformed just sitting in the QLD! So many traders are interested in being right (proving their strategy or that they are smart), instead of just making money.  I continually have to resist falling into this trap…..

As I have written before, my friend Judy is an excellent stock picker who thoroughly researches a stock and only buys it after she has fallen in love with its concept. Well, Judy recently told me about a stock in the promising RNAi field.  You can look up this exciting technology yourselves by going to the company’s home page.  Well, I don’t like cheap stocks and I always subject Judy’s picks to my own technical analysis before I buy. Cytr  She buys at much lower prices than I do and amusingly watches others buy at higher levels as brokerage analysts discover her picks. So Judy told me about CYTR, which I did buy around $3.50.  The stock closed Friday at $4.65 up 12.59% for the day and 28.45% for the week!  CYTR has a lot of technical strength, so I thought I would share it with you, not as a recommendation, but to show you some signs that I look before I buy a stock.  (Click on chart to enlarge.) The weekly chart shows that CYTR has now closed above its 30 week average (red line), a critical buy signal for me.  It is also coming off of a nine month base that came after a huge rise. As you know, I like to buy stocks that have already doubled, and CYTR is up 250% in the past year.  And other RNAi stocks (ALNY, ISIS) are strong.  If CYTR’s clinical trials prove successful and the stock becomes a big winner, I will have plenty of time to average up as the stock climbs….

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GMI: 5; GMI-R: 9; techs shine

The GMI rose to 5 (of 6) and the GMI-R to 90%.  There were 123 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and 81 new lows on Tuesday.  While the SPY (and DIA) remain technically weak, the tech stocks, as reflected in the Nasdaq 100 index, remain very strong.  The tech leaders, AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, ISRG and AMZN were all big winners on Tuesday.  I retained my position in QLD and will begin to write covered calls on IBD100 stocks later this week. 

GMI: 6; IBD100 stocks out-perform Nasdaq100 and S&P500 stocks

The GMI is still at a maximum reading of 6.  Gmi1012 But there were only 125 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday, down from 484 on Thursday and over 200 each other day last week.  And the Worden T2108 indicator is now at 74%, down from a high of 82% on October 5.  This Worden indicator can take a long time to top out as it remains in the 70-80 area.  The QQQQ completed the 31st day of its short term up-trend on Friday.  The last two recent large up-trends lasted 80 days and 86 days, suggesting that this QQQQ up-trend could have further to go.  I have learned over the years that it is futile to try to anticipate market turns.  It is far better to wait until my GMI signals the turn has occurred.  Of course, this means that I lose some profits as the top is formed.  However, I prefer to take this approach over  trying repeatedly (and mistakenly) to predict the turn….

People often tell me that the IBD 100 stocks under-perform the market because once they are added to the list they top out or recede.  Unlike most people with answers, I have data.  And the data indicate the absurdity of this assertion, at least in recent weeks.  Ibdperf101507 This table (click on to enlarge) shows the performance of select IBD 100 stock lists published in the past year.  A larger percentage (82-93%) of the stocks in each list the past six months closed Friday above their 30 day average than did the Nasdaq 100 (73%) or S&P 500 stocks (76%).  Similarly, the last 3 lists contained more stocks likely to be within 5% of their 52 week highs.  Finally, all of the IBD 100 stock lists over the past year had higher median changes (+9-20%) during the past 30 days than the Nasdaq 100 (7%) or S&P 500 stocks (6%).  (A median chnage of 6% means that one half of the stocks advanced more than 6% and one half less than 6% during the past month). Of course, the median chnage of +20% seen in today’s new list is influenced by the fact that  IBD adds to the list and retains each week only the strongest stocks, also reflected in the fact that 93% of the stocks in today’s list closed above their 30 day average. So, looking for winners among recent IBD 100 stocks might be a good strategy.  The past few months I have had considerable success selling near month covered calls on up-trending IBD 100 stocks and have been achieving 3-5% profits each month.  This Friday, options expire and I cash in again….

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