IBD

GMI: 2; GMI-R: 4; QQQQ Up against resistance; IBD100 new highs

@ 12:01 am

The GMI is back to 2 and the GMI-R to 4.  The QQQQ bounced down off of resistance Thursday.  The next few days should tell us whether the current short term up-trend will continue or whether the down-trend resumes.  There were 89 new highs and 93 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The Worden T2108 fell to 53%. 16 stocks from the IBD 100 stock lists I monitor hit highs on Thursday:  NBL,XTO,GG,WFT,NEU,OIL,STLD,CMED,FLS,ABV,NGS,CENX,

MTL,AUY,ATLS,GEF.  Some of these stocks may turn out to be the new market leaders…..

It is true that my indicators can only tell me when an up or down-trend has already begun.  This is the essence of trend-following.  But I have learned that trends can continue for months and there is plenty of time to jump on after the turn.  Anticipation of turns is futile and just leads to losses.  No one can consistently predict the market.

Correction: GMI: 4; GMI-R: 6

@ 12:49 pm

Given IBD’s new format, they now publish their Growth Mutual Fund Index every other day and without the 50 day average.  I therefore have to calculate the 50 day moving average manually.  Having just done so, I find that this index is now above its 50 day average, adding another point to the GMI and the GMI-R.

GMI: 2; GMI-R: 3; Signs of life in the bull; IBD 100 new highs

@ 12:01 am

It appears that this market is looking for reasons to rise.  The GMI is now at 2 out of 6 and the GMI-R is 3 out of 10.  All of my very short term indicators for the SPY, DIA and IJR are positive.  Only the QQQQ lags and this is the reason for the low  numbers on the GMI and GMI-R which are weighted towards the QQQQ.  After a large decline, traders buy the relatively safe large caps and tend to purchase the more speculative stocks later after they have profits and their fear dissipates. There were 80 new highs and 51 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday.  More than one half (52%) of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now above their 30 day averages and the Worden T2108 indicator is now at 52%.  Many of my other indicators show internal strength in stocks. And many of the stocks I listed in yesterday’s post rose nicely.  While the trend remains down, there are signs the bull may be awakening. Thirteen stocks in the current IBD 100 list hit a new high on Monday:  SWN, POT, CF, WDC, NGS, FLS, MTL, NEU, GGB, MOS, CMED, RRC and KWK.  It is clear that agriculture, oil  and commodities remain popular.