I received few comments regarding my trading philosophy. Does that mean you all agree with me? Your comments really do make a difference and inspire me to continue this blog. So, please keep them coming. In a few weeks I will begin teaching two courses on TA at the University of Maryland. I expect that many of my students will be following this blog and I will probably post more content. The GMI is at
If calling the short term trend of the market were easy, we would all be rich and retired. Last week, my short term QQQQ indicator gave me a head fake and turned my daily trend count down. That new downtrend lasted for two days and then the up-trend resumed. However, I had indicated at the time that my short and long term QQQQ indicators were giving inconsistent readings, with the long term indicator remaining in an up-trend. The new short term up-trend just completed its 3rd day.
The more that I analyze the market, the more I become convinced that I should rely on the longer term weekly trends to determine the market trend (see discussion of the Guppy chart below). The QQQQ has been above its critical 10 week average for 11 weeks and the SPY for 10 weeks. But I have told you that I am a chicken, and would rather go to cash at the first sign of weakness and re-enter the market later, after the dust has cleared. I actually have other, personal reasons, for why I am unwilling to enter the market right now. I cannot trade successfully when I am stressed by other concerns. The only stock I own is ASIA, with a close stop loss.
My indicators keep getting stronger. The GMI is 4 for the first time since August 20, 2008. There were more new highs than lows (22 vs. 6) in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday. The Worden T2108 indicator is at 83%, the highest reading since 89% on January 6. This is typically an over-bought reading, but in July, 2003 when the market began the new bull market after the preceding bear market, the T2108 reached 93% as the new bull market got going. Thus, the current high reading may represent the burst of buying after a long bear market. Finally, the daily Guppy chart of the QQQQ suggests the beginning of a new up-trend.