GMI: +2; IBD 100 stronger

The GMI fell back to +2; there were only 53 new highs (82 lows) in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  On Monday, 24% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced, along with 33% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks.  The GMI-S fell to 69, with more weakness in the short term indicators for the QQQQ and IJR ETF’s.  Gmi0807 In contrast, the SPY and DIA indicators remain strong.  Monday was the 23rd day in the current short term decline in the QQQQ.  However, the IBD 100 stocks of 5/15 outperformed the general market on Monday.  54% of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 advanced while only 32% of the 4,000 stocks in my universe advanced.  I do not yet know if the IBD Mutual Fund Index has turned positive.  My TC2005 scan of the market yielded 282 submarines and nine rockets.  With the GMI at +2, it is a good time to sit back in cash. The growing strength in the IBD 100 growth stocks suggests that there is interest in acquiring stocks with good fundamentals.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

 

GMI: 0; 3 IBD 100 new highs; New ETF’s to short indexes–a bullish sign?

The GMI remains at zero, but there were almost enough successful  new highs from 10 days ago (9/15= 60%) to turn this indicator positive.  While I typically call this index positive when 50% or more of the stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago close higher then they did 10 days ago, the numbers here are too small to do so. If it is above 50% again tomorrow, I will make the indicator positive.  Gmi0626 There were 36 new highs and 95 new lows in my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks.  65% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Monday, along with 74% of the S&P 500 and 80% of the Dow 30 stocks. Monday was the 32nd day of the current QQQQ down-trend. 14% of the stocks in my universe are in an up-trend, compared with just 9% at the lows last week.  So stocks are getting stronger.

The IBD 100 growth stocks from 5/15 now look as strong as the stocks in my universe.  This contrasts with the way they acted during the recent decline, when they greatly underperformed other stocks.  Traders and funds were clearly unloading the premier growth stocks in the IBD 100 list.  Ibd0626Three IBD 100 stocks did hit a new high on Monday:  XPRSA, CLDN, OII.  Any of the IBD 100 stocks that could survive the decline of the past month and go on quickly to hit a new high is a stock worth watching.  69% of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 have a MACD above their signal lines, indicating growing strength.   Still, note that only 18 of these 100 stocks closed higher on Tuesday than they did on 5/15 when this list was published by IBD…….

There are now new ways for an investor/trader to short the major market indexes in an IRA without buying put options.  Inverse ETF’s have been born.  They move in the opposite direction of the indexes they track.  So, to short the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) index, one can buy  PSQ.  Other inverse ETF’s include:  SH (S&P 500); DOW 30 (DOG) MYY (S&P 400 midcap).  These ETF’s are thinly traded and should be researched carefully before buying. 

Maybe the dawn of a new set of inverse ETF’s is a bullish sign.  Typically, not long after investors are so interested in a sector that a relevant new ETF is issued, that sector is close to a top–check out XHB, GLD and SLV for recent examples.  Too many people may be interested in shorting the major indexes??!!  A new contrary indicator?

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +4; Cramer contrary signal; techs and small caps weaken; raising stops and cash

While driving to work Thursday, I opined that when the Today Show producers are so sure of the bull trend that they invite Cramer to appear and declare that the current bull market is like that of the 1920’s, this was a big indication of a market nearing its top.  Katie missed the opportunity to remind him how the bull market of the 1920’s ended………………

So, the GMI weakened to +4 and the QQQQ closed below its important longer term 30 week average for the first time since last October.  When a major index is below its 30 week average I get very defensive in the stocks represented by that indicator.  But the QQQQ is not alone.  The IJR small cap index short term indicators have weakened greatly (see the GMI-S index below) and this index ETF is now below its 30 day average, a sign of possible short term weakness.  The QQQQ looks miserable and may be on the verge of a major bear market even though it did not participate much in the rise in the DIA and SPY.Gmi0511 Only 10% of the QQQQ stocks advanced on Thursday, along with 11% of the SPY stocks and 3% of the "strong" DIA stocks.  Only 51% of the 4,000 stocks in my universe closed above their 10 week moving averages.  The QQQQ is now in its first day of a new short term down trend (D-1)……….

Given the above, I have raised my sell stops, raised cash and continued buying puts in construction stocks and others that appear to have topped out.  O’neil’s book on how to sell short has helped me a lot to determine the proper stock pattern for shorting.  To short in my IRA, I buy put options.  This in not the time for me  to be brave by holding stocks and hoping for gains…….

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.