GMI: 6; Citigroup break out?

The GMI remains at 6. 52-66% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Friday.  58% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages.  There were 140 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Gmi0119_1

Friday was the 8th day in the current QQQQ short term up-trend and the 3rd week the index has closed above its 10 week average.  So, given these decent stats, why are my trades not working out?  For one thing, the QQQQ whipsawed the past two weeks, climbing up and then falling back to support.  But since 12/29 the QQQQ is up 2.3% and 61 of its stocks are up 1% or more in that period. The QLD (ultra long QQQQ ETF) is up 4.1%. Believe it or not, GOOG is up 6.4% and AAPL, 4.3% since 12/29.   My problem is that I bought more of these stocks (and QLD) as they rose and took losses when they fell back from their highs. The question remains, will these leaders hold support or break down?

Look at this MONTHLY chart of Citigroup (C).  I have learned that it is very important to look at three time periods; monthly, weekly and daily, to ascertain trends.Citigroup After a phenomenal rise in the 90’s, C topped out at 55.15 in September, 2000.  It remained below that price for more than 6 years.  But on last December 18, C went to a new all-time high and continued on to peak at 57 on 12/28.  My guess is that a rise above 57 would be another sign of strength in this stock.  When a formerly strong stock breaks out of a multi-year base on high volume, good things tend to happen. Monthly charts can tell us a lot more about long term trends than weekly charts.

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GMI: 6; Ominous signs; IBD 100 stocks underperforming

The GMI is back to 6, but be careful.  Only 18% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 37% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks.  Gmi0118_2 There were 182 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  And Thursday was the 7th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.  But when IBM, MER and AAPL announce good earnings and their stocks weaken, it is an ominous sign.  The GMI-S fell 19, to 69.  None of my 4 short term indicators for the small cap stocks (IJR) are positive.  The IBD 100 type of growth stocks are also underperforming; only 13% of the list from 12/18 rose on Thursday and only 42% closed above their price on 12/18.

I was stopped out of QLD and ATHR today.  I will consider buying the ultra inverse ETF for shorting the QQQQ (QID) if the GMI weakens.  Right now this market looks sick, although the trend has not turned down yet.  See my disclaimers on my prior post. 

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 75; Brokers strong; LEH- cup with handle?

The GMI is back to a maximum of 6 and the GMI-S is 75.  Stocks are bouncing off of support all over.  Gmi1012_3 There were 263 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  Friday was the 4th day in the current QQQQ up-trend. I am buying the ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD, again.  GOOG and AAPL also are gaining strength along with ATHR.  (I own these.)

The brokerage stocks are climbing again.  I mentioned quite some time ago that in a rising market, brokers must do well as trading volume tends to rise. Thus, the U.S. brokerage ETF, IAI, rose 6% last week. Leh0112  Brokers that appear to be in up-trends include:  MER, GS, BSC, MS, SCHW, SEIC, to name a few. It looks like LEH has just broken out of a cup with handle base pattern. Strength in the brokers suggests good earnings to come and a strong market.

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