ETF

This is a very split market with the Nasdaq 100 stocks being laggards.  The GMI is still 5 and there were 461 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  But only 49% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, compared with 73-74% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks. GOOG has now fallen, along with RIMM and AAPL.   When the strongest stocks weaken, the rest of the market usually cannot keep rising.  But all of my short term indicators for SPY, DIA and IJR are positive.  Will the QQQQ follow or lead these other ETF’s?

The GMI remains at 5, and the GMI-S rose to 56 because of the strength in the small-cap index ETF (IJR).  There were 115 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  43% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 49% of the S&P 500 stocks but only 27% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 42% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, down from 77% on January 12. Friday was the 2nd day in the QQQQ down-trend.  With the leaders, RIMM and AAPL, looking weak and toppy, this market may be getting ready to roll over. I am beginning to nibble again on the inverse ultra short QQQQ ETF, QID.

Please note my disclaimers at the end of my prior post. 

The GMI returned to 6 and the GMI-S rose to 75.   The QQQQ appears to be starting another up-trend (U-1).  It also looks like GOOG may have another earnings related bounce–it reports on 1/31.  There were 303 new highs on Wednesday in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 80-90% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose.  The 30 day moving average for the QQQQ is flat and when that happens the index often times goes back and forth around its 30 day average.  These whipsaw moves are very frustrating and hard to trade profitably.  As long as the GMI is above 3, it may be better to stay long in the other ultra long index ETF’s; MVV, SSO and DDM.  Their underlying indexes are exhibiting consistent up-trends.

See bottom of my prior post for my disclaimers.