ETF

GMI: 5; GMI-R: 8; 48th day of QQQQ up-trend; 19 IBD100 stocks at new highs

@ 8:00 am

The GMI (General Market Index is now at 5 (of 6) and the GMI-R (GMI, revised) is now at 8 (of 10). (Click on table to enlarge.)GMI0530

There were 86 new highs and 41 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  The QQQQ has been in an up-trend for 48 days.  Over that time, the QQQQ has risen 10.2% and the ultra long QQQQ ETF, QLD, has advanced 18.9%.  So if one just rode the trend in the QLD, one could have had a very nice portfolio performance, indeed!  I meet so many traders who think they must get in and out of the market and trade every dip.  But as Jesse Livermore wrote over a half century ago, the way to make big money in the market is to determine the change in trend and to ride it until it ends…..

The IBD100 stocks have been doing well lately. The list of stocks on the IBD100 list published on April 7 provides a good example.  In about two months, 67% have advanced, 45% by more than 12% and 32% are up more than 20%.  In fact the top 10 gainers are up 32-94%.  The leader is CLR (+94%), followed by TTES and GHM (+40%) and ISYS (+39%).  Today's new IBD100 list has a lot of promising stocks on it, including 19 which hit a new high on Friday:  ISYS,KSU,WDC,ANSS,SOHU,CLR,NDSN,SQM,FLS,GLF,WFT,
CLHB,HIL,MA,GDI,WTI,DR,GMXR,AXYS.  I bet some of this summer's big winners are on this list…..

GMI: 4; GMI-R: 5; QQQQ on support–bounce or bottom?

@ 8:51 pm

The GMI is at 4 (of 6) but the GMI-R is just 5 (of 10), indicating that  my short term and most sensitive indicators are weak. GMI0523

The QQQQ is in its 44th day of its up-trend, which is in serious risk of faltering.  A close of QQQQ below 47.77 will likely bring the GMI down. The stocks represented in the SPY and DIA index ETF's are seriously weak already.  There were only 23 new highs and 88 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  Less than half (48%) of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed Friday above their 30 day averages.  This is time to place close stops and to consider moving from QLD into QID.  I am also considering buying puts in my IRA on some declining stocks. This week should tell whether the rise from last March was just a bounce within a larger down-trend, or indicative of a true bottom.

GMI: 6; GMI-R: 10; almost 100% invested

@ 12:01 am

For the first time since December 26, the GMI is now at the maximum reading of +6 (of 6) and the GMI-R is  10 (of 10).  There were 121 new highs and 54 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Tuesday.  Tuesday was the 31st day since I identified the beginning of the current QQQQ up-trend.  I transferred my university pension from money market funds to growth mutual funds today.  I am also almost totally invested in stocks in my IRA.  I continue to hold a large position in QLD, the ultra QQQ ETF that strives to double the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index.  I also own growth stocks such as AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, URBN, and V.  I also own some of Judy’s picks:  CPST and IMAX.