The GMI remains at zero (of 6), and the more sensitive GMI-R is at one (of 10). 36% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now above their 30 day averages, the highest percentage since September 3rd. This is a time to watch patiently for a sign of a change in trend. The indexes are gaining strength, but the key is to wait for a definitive sign of a change. The odds always favor a continuation of the trend, which in the case of the QQQQ, has been down for 66 days. If the GMI rises to 3, I will start going long in at least QLD, the QQQQ ultra-long ETF. I also like a number of the stocks at new highs that I wrote about yesterday.
ETF
GMI: 0; GMI-R: 2; T2108: 25%; Up-trend coming?
The GMI remains at zero (of 6) and the more sensitive GMI-R at 2 (of 10).
Friday was the 62nd day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend. The Worden T2108 is now at 25%, out of bottom territory, and the highest reading since September 22nd. There were 12 new highs and 21 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. The last time we had so few new lows was August 28. 82% of the Nasdaq100 stocks have a MACD above their signal lines. So, the market is showing some signs of strength. We are at a key decision point. The QQQQ is close to resistance and will either turn down or break through. Once one of these events has occurred, I will either buy QLD (break through) or QID (break down). My approach is to tiptoe in and accumulate the appropriate ultra QQQQ ETF as the trend continues. I am in cash and have closed all shorts, as I await a definitive signal.
GMI: 0;GMI-R: 0; 55th day of QQQQ short term down-trend; T2108: 11%; QID
There were only 3 new highs and 460 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday. Monday was the 55th day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend. Since the first day of this down-trend on September 2nd, the QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 index ETF) has declined 37.7% and 99 of the 100 Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined, 52% have declined more than 40%. Do you see the folly of fighting the primary trend of the index? 99% of the stocks declined! Do you know how many persons are still looking for stocks to BUY??!!! In a down-trend one should be in cash or short. During this same period, the ultra inverse QQQQ ETF, QID, has advanced 87.5%. Now, that’s the way to play a down-trend!